BUTTERFLY DUST JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2,596.56
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2,271.99 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.80%
1,306 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,549 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/butterfly-dust-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $2,597 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,621 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,597 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2,618 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,624 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,640 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2,649 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2,648 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2,657 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2,652 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2,661 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,657 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2,670 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $2,673 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,687 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,673 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,687 | 87.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%gold 5.6%uncommon 5.6%red 5.6%pink 33.3%best hit $14.1K (5.22x)