CALL ME

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$17.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $15.31 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.40%

6,062 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.19%±12.13938 openings

7 days

85.54%±5.135,349 openings

30 days

87.40%±4.826,062 openings

since tracking started

87.40%±4.826,062 openings

80.0%94.5%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	938	96.19%±12.1	+1.4σ	odds
7d	5,349	85.54%±5.13	−0.8σ	odds
30d	6,062	87.40%±4.82	−0.0σ	odds
All	6,062	87.40%±4.82	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,068 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,345	0.9%	1	0.6	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,316	0.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$1,122	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$1,032	0.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$908	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$670	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 3,333	$637	1.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$611	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$410	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$390	0.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$309	1.0%	7	3.0	2.31×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$284	0.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$253	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$217	0.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$212	0.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$210	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$196	0.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$175	0.1%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$166	0.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 3,226	$164	0.3%	2	1.9	1.06×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 3,125	$159	0.3%	3	1.9	1.54×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$137	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$131	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$126	0.1%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$122	0.1%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$121	0.1%	0	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,000	$99.48	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$82.38	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$80.33	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,389	$69.38	0.3%	14	4.4	3.20×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$67.44	0.1%	0	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 94	$57.05	4.0%	0	64.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$54.34	4.2%	0	71.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$52.36	4.3%	0	76.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 85	$45.56	3.5%	0	71.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$40.12	6.9%	0	158.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 36	$39.11	7.0%	0	167.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 34	$38.08	7.2%	0	176.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$35.17	4.6%	0	122.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$25.62	2.7%	0	97.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$23.72	3.9%	0	153.4	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$21.97	2.3%	0	96.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$21.04	4.4%	0	195.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$20.90	4.4%	0	197.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$18.57	3.7%	0	186.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$16.80	2.0%	0	107.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$16.00	1.5%	0	85.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$15.68	1.6%	0	92.7	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$15.10	1.6%	0	96.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$15.02	1.6%	0	97.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$14.72	1.6%	0	101.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$14.46	3.6%	0	233.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$14.38	3.6%	0	235.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$14.15	2.3%	0	151.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$13.69	2.1%	183	139.5	1.31×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 176	$13.66	0.5%	0	34.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 161	$12.91	0.5%	0	37.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,333	$12.47	0.1%	0	4.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 146	$12.13	0.5%	0	41.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 621	$6.44	0.1%	0	9.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 418	$5.66	0.1%	0	14.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$3.64	0.1%	0	32.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 171	$3.23	0.1%	0	35.4	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 116	$2.56	0.1%	0	52.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 101	$2.07	0.1%	0	59.8	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.74	0.2%	0	97.1	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 57	$1.64	0.2%	0	106.9	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$1.59	0.2%	0	112.2	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.58	0.2%	0	101.5	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$1.56	0.2%	0	115.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.45	0.2%	0	140.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.39	0.2%	0	150.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$1.30	0.2%	0	151.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 39	$1.29	0.2%	0	153.8	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.24	0.2%	0	149.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$1.16	0.3%	0	201.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$1.16	0.2%	0	166.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.15	0.2%	0	184.8	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.14	0.2%	0	171.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$1.12	0.2%	0	159.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$1.12	0.2%	0	159.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.93	0.2%	0	214.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/call-me, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$17.50$1,41680.89x7d

★ Karambit | Autotronicknife · sunny$17.50$98456.25x14h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pinkBİNBAŞI ÖZÇELİK$17.50$24.211.38x50s

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pinkWENDIGO$17.50$24.211.38x50s

Glock-18 | Trace Lockweapon · restricted$17.50$1.230.07x10m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pink$17.50$18.261.04x10m

Glock-18 | Trace Lockweapon · restrictedKacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME$17.50$1.230.07x10m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pinkKaprix skins.army$17.50$18.261.04x12m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pink$17.50$18.261.04x20m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violet$17.50$1.250.07x20m

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pink$17.50$24.211.38x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$17.50	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$17.50	87.54%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$17.50	87.39%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$17.50	87.62%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$17.50	87.47%	82
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$17.50	87.25%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$17.50	87.55%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$17.50	87.40%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$17.50	87.69%	82
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$17.50	87.51%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$17.50	87.35%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$17.50	87.51%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$17.50	87.26%	82
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$17.50	87.57%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$17.50	87.58%	82
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$17.50	87.57%	82
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$17.50	87.58%	82
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$17.50	87.52%	82
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$17.50	87.60%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$17.50	87.59%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.4%red 2.8%Ancient 4.1%epic 0.0%gold 0.1%classified 32.5%pink 6.5%restricted 16.6%#8847ff 5.5%Mythical 5.3%violet 17.6%uncommon 2.5%best hit $1,416 (80.89x)