CALL ME JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$277.64

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $242.93 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.76%

106 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

90 openings · below min

30 days

92.76%±26.26106 openings

since tracking started

92.76%±26.26106 openings

-0.5%66.5%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	31.82%±81.4	—	odds
7d	90	104.26%±28.5	—	odds
30d	106	92.76%±26.3	+0.4σ	odds
All	106	92.76%±26.3	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 113 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$1,345	20.5%	5	4.2	1.19×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$1,316	20.1%	6	4.2	1.43×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 81	$1,122	5.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 81	$1,032	5.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 81	$908	4.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$670	2.0%	0	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 27	$637	9.7%	4	4.2	0.96×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$611	1.9%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$410	1.3%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$390	3.0%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 27	$309	4.7%	3	4.2	0.72×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$284	2.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 135	$253	0.8%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$217	0.7%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$212	1.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$210	1.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 135	$196	0.6%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 81	$175	0.9%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$166	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 27	$164	2.5%	6	4.2	1.43×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 27	$159	2.4%	3	4.2	0.72×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$137	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$131	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$126	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$122	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$121	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 27	$99.48	1.5%	1	4.2	0.24×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$82.38	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 135	$80.33	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 27	$69.38	1.1%	3	4.2	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$67.44	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$57.05	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$54.34	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$52.36	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 108	$45.56	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$40.12	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 108	$39.11	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 108	$38.08	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$35.17	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$25.62	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$23.72	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$21.97	0.1%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$21.04	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$20.90	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$18.57	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$16.80	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$16.00	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$15.68	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$15.10	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$15.02	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$14.72	0.0%	0	0.8	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$14.46	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$14.38	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$14.15	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$13.69	0.2%	4	4.2	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$13.66	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.91	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$12.47	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.13	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$6.44	0.0%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$5.66	0.0%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$3.64	0.0%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$3.23	0.0%	0	0.8	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$2.56	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$2.07	0.0%	0	0.8	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.74	0.0%	0	0.8	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.64	0.0%	0	0.8	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.59	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.58	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.56	0.0%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.45	0.0%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.39	0.0%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$1.30	0.0%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 135	$1.29	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.24	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.16	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 108	$1.16	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.15	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.14	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.12	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.12	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.93	0.0%	0	0.8	—

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/call-me-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$286$1,4375.03x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$284$1,4004.94x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$282$1,3704.86x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$281$1,3644.85x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$280$1,3494.82x1d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$281$1,3094.66x2d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$282$1,3064.64x2d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$284$1,2794.50x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$286$1,2794.48x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Fuel Injectorweapon · pink????????????skins.army$279$13.410.05x9h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$279$1300.47x18h

P2000 | Imperial Dragonweapon · pink$279$14.540.05x18h

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pink$279$16.560.06x18h

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pinkNowacz3k CS2.ME$279$18.750.07x18h

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · red$279$1990.71x20h

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pinkbeny$279$24.910.09x20h

XM1014 | Seasonsweapon · violet$279$1.810.01x22h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$279$1300.47x22h

AK-47 | Leet Museoweapon · covertgrochalek$279$2500.90x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$278	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$279	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$280	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$281	87.50%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$282	87.50%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$283	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$281	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$284	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$284	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$284	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$284	87.50%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.9%red 3.6%Ancient 2.6%epic 3.7%gold 7.4%classified 16.7%pink 1.9%restricted 9.4%#8847ff 2.4%Mythical 4.4%violet 5.2%uncommon 0.7%best hit $1,437 (5.03x)