CANDY DROP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$0.40

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.35 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.18%

125K openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.61%±2.9714.8K openings

7 days

84.85%±1.09105K openings

30 days

85.18%±1.00125K openings

since tracking started

85.18%±1.00125K openings

79.0%84.3%89.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.18% – 86.18%, 125,422 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.8K	82.61%±2.97	−3.3σ	odds
7d	105K	84.85%±1.09	−6.5σ	odds
30d	125K	85.18%±1.00	−6.8σ	odds
All	125K	85.18%±1.00	−6.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$137	0.8%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$53.21	0.5%	0	3.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$10.57	0.1%	0	3.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14,286	$6.56	0.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,667	$5.56	0.2%	12	18.9	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$4.45	0.3%	18	25.2	0.71×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,000	$3.52	0.5%	36	63.0	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 136	$1.56	3.3%	0	925.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$1.55	7.1%	1,537	2023.2	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 99	$1.33	3.8%	0	1273.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 313	$0.98	0.9%	0	401.9	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$0.87	2.4%	0	1211.9	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 255	$0.86	1.0%	0	493.8	0.00×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.61	7.1%	3,870	5139.8	0.75×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 69	$0.46	1.9%	0	1821.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 59	$0.46	2.2%	0	2151.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 61	$0.46	2.2%	0	2066.0	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.44	4.7%	0	4731.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 54	$0.44	2.3%	0	2352.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$0.41	2.1%	0	2294.0	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 58	$0.41	2.0%	0	2169.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$0.41	2.5%	0	2709.7	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$0.40	2.2%	0	2409.9	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$0.40	2.1%	0	2278.9	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$0.40	2.1%	0	2278.9	0.00×
Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	12.8%	$0.32	11.7%	15,146	16161.3	0.94×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	13.5%	$0.28	10.8%	16,207	17046.9	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	10.8%	$0.20	6.2%	0	13592.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	15.5%	$0.20	8.8%	19,083	19502.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	16.5%	$0.17	8.0%	21,060	20812.3	1.01×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/candy-drop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.320.80xnow

StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.170.43xnow

Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.320.80xnow

UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.230.58xnow

UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blue$0.40$0.230.58x5s

StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue$0.40$0.170.43x5s

MP5-SD | Kitbashweapon · violetblk_420“skins.army”$0.40$0.531.33x5s

UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.230.58x11s

StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blueradziulabomba$0.40$0.200.50x11s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.40	87.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$0.40	87.50%	30
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$0.40	88.01%	30
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$0.40	88.75%	30
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$0.40	88.70%	30
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$0.40	88.84%	30
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$0.40	88.26%	30
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$0.40	88.63%	30
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.40	87.98%	30
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$0.40	89.06%	30
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$0.40	89.13%	30
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.40	88.59%	30
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.40	89.76%	30
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$0.40	90.53%	30
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.40	88.58%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 2.5%violet 20.8%mil spec 4.1%#4b69ff 1.6%#8847ff 1.9%blue 69.2%best hit —