CANDY DROP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$13.96

Advertised RTP

87.48%

EV $12.21 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.20%

12K openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.55%±11.911,491 openings

7 days

83.95%±4.5010.4K openings

30 days

84.20%±4.1812K openings

since tracking started

84.20%±4.1812K openings

67.0%79.5%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,491	79.55%±11.9	−1.2σ	odds
7d	10.4K	83.95%±4.50	−1.5σ	odds
30d	12K	84.20%±4.18	−1.5σ	odds
All	12K	84.20%±4.18	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 18	$138	62.8%	642	670.5	0.96×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$52.60	23.9%	647	670.5	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$10.31	2.3%	0	335.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 36	$6.43	1.5%	0	335.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$5.53	2.5%	642	670.5	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$4.61	2.1%	667	670.5	0.99×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$3.60	1.6%	657	670.5	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$1.53	0.3%	0	335.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$1.45	0.7%	676	670.5	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$1.33	0.3%	0	335.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.98	0.1%	0	167.7	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 36	$0.87	0.2%	0	335.3	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.86	0.1%	0	167.7	0.00×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.63	0.3%	689	670.6	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.49	0.1%	0	335.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$0.46	0.1%	0	223.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$0.44	0.1%	0	167.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 54	$0.44	0.1%	0	223.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.41	0.0%	0	167.7	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.41	0.1%	0	335.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$0.41	0.1%	0	223.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.40	0.0%	0	167.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.40	0.0%	0	167.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.40	0.0%	0	167.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.38	0.0%	0	167.7	0.00×
Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.32	0.1%	685	670.6	1.02×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.28	0.1%	685	670.6	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 36	$0.20	0.0%	0	335.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.20	0.1%	672	670.6	1.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.17	0.1%	680	670.6	1.01×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/candy-drop-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Kitbashweapon · violet$13.96$0.660.05x9m

StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blueSoBoL BuK$13.96$0.200.01x9m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industriesweapon · classified$13.96$8.560.61x15m

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$13.96$1.550.11x15m

StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue$13.96$0.170.01x15m

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redGigaN CS2.ME$13.96$1379.85x15m

Tec-9 | Brotherweapon · violet$13.96$0.440.03x15m

Five-SeveN | Hybridweapon · violet$13.96$0.520.04x15m

StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue$13.96$0.200.01x15m

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violetGigaN CS2.ME$13.96$1.440.10x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$13.96	87.48%	30
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$13.80	87.50%	30
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$13.91	87.51%	30
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$13.90	87.51%	30
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$13.47	87.51%	30
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$13.15	87.47%	30
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$13.29	87.48%	30
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$14.00	87.50%	30
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$13.78	87.48%	30
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$13.72	87.52%	30
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$13.91	87.52%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.78	87.48%	30
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$13.91	87.52%	30
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$14.23	87.49%	30
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$14.02	87.51%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 5.6%covert 5.6%classified 2.8%Legendary 13.9%Mythical 9.7%violet 27.3%mil spec 5.6%#4b69ff 2.8%#8847ff 1.9%blue 25.0%best hit —