CANDY SHOP
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$45.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $39.37 from 63 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.81%
3,849 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,850 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/candy-shop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $45.00 | 87.44% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $45.00 | 87.44% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $45.00 | 87.53% | 63 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $45.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $45.00 | 87.53% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.00 | 87.49% | 63 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $45.00 | 87.26% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $45.00 | 87.59% | 63 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $45.00 | 87.46% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $45.00 | 87.59% | 63 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $45.00 | 87.67% | 63 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $45.00 | 87.30% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $45.00 | 87.39% | 63 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $45.00 | 87.70% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $45.00 | 87.50% | 63 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $45.00 | 87.31% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $45.00 | 87.32% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $45.00 | 87.43% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $45.00 | 87.43% | 63 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $45.00 | 87.51% | 63 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.2%covert 13.9%sunny 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%rare 10.0%Ancient 11.9%Immortal 1.4%classified 22.9%Covert 3.0%red 1.6%pink 15.8%uncommon 1.7%Legendary 1.2%restricted 4.4%Mythical 6.9%#d32ce6 1.6%violet 1.6%best hit —