CHAMPION

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.20

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.67 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.02%

11.1K openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.95%±7.941,843 openings

7 days

85.56%±3.509,619 openings

30 days

86.02%±3.2511.1K openings

since tracking started

86.02%±3.2511.1K openings

78.5%87.0%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,843	86.95%±7.94	−0.2σ	odds
7d	9,619	85.56%±3.50	−1.1σ	odds
30d	11.1K	86.02%±3.25	−1.0σ	odds
All	11.1K	86.02%±3.25	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,083	$175	2.3%	5	5.3	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$105	2.3%	7	8.8	0.80×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 893	$74.10	2.3%	6	12.5	0.48×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,174	$67.89	0.8%	0	5.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,818	$57.58	0.9%	0	6.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 529	$43.39	2.2%	16	21.0	0.76×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 775	$40.23	1.4%	0	14.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$36.15	1.1%	0	12.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 699	$35.60	1.4%	0	15.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 769	$33.06	1.2%	0	14.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$13.37	20.7%	0	633.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	11.5%	$7.25	22.6%	0	1276.3	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$5.94	12.8%	833	879.7	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$5.32	12.8%	1,259	982.2	1.28×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 412	$3.08	0.2%	0	27.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$2.60	1.7%	0	269.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.51	3.4%	929	921.4	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$1.48	2.1%	0	591.9	0.00×
P90 \| Module (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$1.27	3.1%	1,014	987.5	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 73	$0.89	0.3%	0	153.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$0.46	0.4%	0	386.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$0.44	0.4%	0	411.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	13.5%	$0.44	1.6%	1,544	1508.8	1.02×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$0.43	0.8%	0	743.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.41	0.5%	0	454.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.41	0.8%	0	794.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/champion, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pinkWitold Pilecki$4.20$9.282.21x5m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet-m1soqq$4.20$0.420.10x5m

Tec-9 | Brotherweapon · violet$4.20$0.530.13x10m

AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$4.20$5.941.41x10m

MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$4.20$0.440.10x10m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violetliv$4.20$0.420.10x10m

MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$4.20$0.440.10x16m

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pink$4.20$9.282.21x16m

MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffShuriken$4.20$0.440.10x16m

AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified兔子 skins.army$4.20$5.941.41x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$4.20	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$4.20	87.79%	26
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$4.20	87.88%	26
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.20	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$4.20	87.32%	26
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$4.20	87.81%	26
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$4.20	87.33%	26
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$4.20	87.51%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$4.20	87.87%	26
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$4.20	87.33%	26
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.20	87.12%	26
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$4.20	87.85%	26
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.20	87.99%	26
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.20	87.84%	26
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$4.20	87.45%	26
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$4.20	88.00%	26
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.20	87.50%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.1%classified 8.0%covert 0.2%Covert 0.1%Ancient 0.6%Legendary 14.5%rare 11.5%violet 25.4%restricted 8.3%#8847ff 22.6%mil spec 8.9%best hit —