CHAMPION JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$39.32

Advertised RTP

87.51%

EV $34.41 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.72%

1,326 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.26%±13.27302 openings

7 days

86.43%±7.29999 openings

30 days

86.72%±6.331,326 openings

since tracking started

86.72%±6.331,326 openings

70.5%84.3%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	302	84.26%±13.3	−0.5σ	odds
7d	999	86.43%±7.29	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,326	86.72%±6.33	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,326	86.72%±6.33	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,332 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 16	$163	29.7%	84	83.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$105	19.0%	77	83.3	0.92×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$79.09	14.4%	75	83.3	0.90×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 32	$67.17	6.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 32	$56.47	5.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 16	$41.25	7.5%	72	83.3	0.86×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 32	$38.75	3.5%	0	41.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$36.66	3.3%	0	41.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 32	$34.26	3.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 32	$34.02	3.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 32	$13.27	1.2%	0	41.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 32	$7.78	0.7%	0	41.6	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$6.00	1.1%	74	83.3	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$5.23	0.9%	89	83.3	1.07×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 80	$3.03	0.1%	0	16.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$2.63	0.2%	0	41.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$1.51	0.3%	100	83.3	1.20×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$1.39	0.1%	0	41.6	0.00×
P90 \| Module (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$1.27	0.2%	78	83.3	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 80	$0.89	0.0%	0	16.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 80	$0.46	0.0%	0	16.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 80	$0.44	0.0%	0	16.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$0.44	0.1%	78	83.3	0.94×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.43	0.0%	0	41.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 80	$0.41	0.0%	0	16.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.41	0.0%	0	41.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/champion-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$40.51$0.420.01x12m

M4A4 | Temukauweapon · covert$40.51$36.500.90x12m

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$40.51$1.550.04x12m

AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdenizgenc007$40.51$78.311.93x12m

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$40.51$1.550.04x31m

USP-S | Printstreamweapon · red$40.51$54.531.35x31m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$40.51$0.420.01x31m

M4A4 | Temukauweapon · covertParówek37$40.51$36.500.90x31m

USP-S | Printstreamweapon · red$40.51$54.531.35x35m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$40.51$0.420.01x35m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$39.32	87.51%	26
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$40.51	87.49%	26
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$38.77	87.51%	26
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$39.97	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$41.15	87.49%	26
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$41.60	87.50%	26
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$40.02	87.49%	26
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$41.14	87.51%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$40.60	87.49%	26
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$41.14	87.51%	26
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$40.85	87.51%	26
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$40.35	87.49%	26
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$40.27	87.50%	26
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$40.35	87.49%	26
2 Nov, 22:28 UTC	$41.45	87.50%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 9.4%classified 12.5%covert 9.4%Covert 3.1%Ancient 15.6%Legendary 9.4%rare 3.1%violet 14.4%restricted 6.3%#8847ff 10.6%mil spec 6.3%best hit —