CLASSIFIED

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.25 from 139 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.20%

9,098 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.96%±4.181,380 openings

7 days

87.73%±1.827,798 openings

30 days

87.20%±1.699,098 openings

since tracking started

87.20%±1.699,098 openings

83.0%88.0%93.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,380	87.96%±4.18	+0.2σ	odds
7d	7,798	87.73%±1.82	−0.1σ	odds
30d	9,098	87.20%±1.69	−0.7σ	odds
All	9,098	87.20%±1.69	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values139 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$662	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100,000	$516	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$423	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$280	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$189	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$93.39	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$60.80	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$60.80	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$56.24	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$55.14	0.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$49.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$38.71	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$37.30	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$37.10	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$36.22	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$35.17	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$34.78	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$32.30	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100,000	$30.76	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$28.23	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100,000	$27.38	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$26.61	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$25.75	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$23.81	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$23.75	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$23.72	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$23.61	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 100,000	$23.20	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$21.70	0.4%	0	9.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,381	$21.04	0.2%	0	3.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 637	$20.90	0.6%	0	14.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$20.53	0.5%	0	11.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 855	$20.03	0.4%	0	10.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 847	$19.97	0.4%	0	10.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 917	$19.95	0.4%	0	9.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 649	$19.86	0.6%	0	14.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 893	$19.72	0.4%	0	10.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$19.42	0.5%	0	12.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 694	$18.75	0.5%	0	13.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 781	$18.39	0.4%	0	11.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 498	$17.37	0.7%	0	18.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 581	$17.12	0.6%	0	15.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,041	$17.07	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$16.07	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$15.65	0.4%	0	12.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 495	$15.51	0.6%	0	18.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 699	$15.51	0.4%	0	13.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 490	$15.43	0.6%	0	18.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 658	$15.02	0.4%	0	13.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 794	$14.77	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$14.66	1.5%	0	50.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 408	$14.46	0.7%	0	22.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 405	$14.38	0.7%	0	22.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 403	$14.35	0.7%	0	22.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 167	$14.10	1.6%	0	54.7	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 168	$13.85	1.6%	0	54.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$13.79	1.6%	0	55.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 885	$13.57	0.3%	0	10.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 417	$13.39	0.6%	0	21.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 346	$13.27	0.7%	0	26.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 833	$12.78	0.3%	0	10.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 680	$12.51	0.4%	0	13.4	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 267	$12.13	0.9%	0	34.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 278	$10.52	0.7%	0	32.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$9.70	2.1%	0	104.0	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 164	$9.52	1.1%	0	55.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 302	$9.32	0.6%	0	30.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 515	$8.90	0.3%	0	17.7	0.00×
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 230	$8.81	0.7%	0	39.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 431	$8.73	0.4%	0	21.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 382	$7.99	0.4%	0	23.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 503	$7.97	0.3%	0	18.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 275	$7.86	0.5%	0	33.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 192	$7.11	0.7%	0	47.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$7.05	0.6%	0	42.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 212	$7.02	0.6%	0	43.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 212	$7.02	0.6%	0	43.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 202	$6.85	0.6%	0	45.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 200	$6.84	0.7%	0	45.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 198	$6.79	0.7%	0	46.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 199	$6.79	0.7%	0	45.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 288	$6.78	0.4%	0	31.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 196	$6.76	0.7%	0	46.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 197	$6.76	0.7%	0	46.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 257	$6.74	0.5%	0	35.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 382	$6.73	0.3%	0	23.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 251	$6.64	0.5%	0	36.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 299	$6.47	0.4%	0	30.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 235	$6.43	0.5%	0	38.8	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$6.40	0.7%	0	50.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 164	$6.32	0.7%	0	55.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 153	$6.10	0.8%	0	59.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 210	$6.07	0.6%	0	43.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 355	$6.07	0.3%	0	25.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 353	$6.03	0.3%	0	25.8	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$5.91	1.9%	0	153.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 83	$5.88	1.3%	0	109.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$5.86	2.3%	0	189.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 74	$5.78	1.5%	0	123.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$5.65	2.0%	0	173.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$5.56	1.4%	0	118.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 47	$5.17	2.1%	0	196.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$5.12	1.2%	0	109.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 83	$5.10	1.2%	0	110.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 130	$5.01	0.7%	0	70.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$4.99	1.1%	0	107.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 65	$4.94	1.4%	0	139.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 83	$4.90	1.1%	0	109.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$4.77	1.3%	0	134.4	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 57	$4.76	1.6%	0	161.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 72	$4.61	1.2%	0	126.9	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$4.57	0.8%	0	84.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 73	$4.45	1.2%	0	125.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$4.43	1.7%	0	188.0	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$4.33	1.0%	0	113.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 59	$4.24	1.4%	0	154.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$4.21	1.6%	0	182.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 77	$4.21	1.0%	0	118.8	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.16	2.1%	0	240.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$4.10	1.4%	0	166.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 60	$4.08	1.3%	0	152.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$3.99	1.4%	0	168.6	0.00×
P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$3.99	2.1%	0	255.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$3.96	1.6%	0	198.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$3.92	1.1%	0	130.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 52	$3.89	1.4%	0	174.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$3.66	1.1%	0	143.3	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$3.64	1.4%	0	178.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$3.60	1.4%	0	181.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 59	$3.49	1.1%	0	154.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$3.44	1.1%	0	157.5	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$3.37	0.7%	0	92.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$2.89	0.9%	0	151.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$2.66	0.9%	0	169.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$2.62	0.9%	0	173.4	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$2.48	1.0%	0	198.7	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 26	$1.65	1.2%	0	351.3	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$1.47	0.9%	0	295.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$1.35	1.0%	0	339.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/classified, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Disco Techweapon · classified$6.00$6.961.16x8s

P250 | Visionsweapon · pink$6.00$4.070.68x8s

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movementweapon · pinkRuJiRu$6.00$6.851.14x8s

UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pink$6.00$3.760.63x1m

P250 | Visionsweapon · pink$6.00$4.070.68x1m

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$6.00$5.760.96x1m

XM1014 | XOXOweapon · pinkmrozi _lt;3 skins.army$6.00$4.030.67x1m

Tec-9 | Remote Controlweapon · pink$6.00$3.000.50x7m

XM1014 | XOXOweapon · pink$6.00$4.030.67x7m

Tec-9 | Remote Controlweapon · pink$6.00$3.000.50x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$6.00	87.50%	139
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$6.00	87.89%	139
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$6.00	87.66%	139
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$6.00	88.12%	139
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.00	87.79%	139
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	139
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$6.00	87.67%	139
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$6.00	87.89%	139
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$6.00	87.67%	139
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$6.00	87.95%	139
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$6.00	87.69%	139
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$6.00	87.79%	139
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.00	87.69%	139
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.00	87.71%	139
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.00	87.69%	139
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$6.00	88.09%	139
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.00	87.84%	139
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$6.00	87.80%	139
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$6.00	87.69%	139
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$6.00	87.78%	139

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 32.6%#d32ee6 9.5%pink 40.8%rare 0.0%Legendary 10.7%uncommon 3.8%Classified 2.6%best hit —