DART CLUB JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$51.18
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $44.78 from 72 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.60%
901 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
74.33%±28.80129 openings
7 days
78.47%±12.76626 openings
30 days
84.60%±10.52901 openings
since tracking started
84.60%±10.52901 openings
45.0%74.5%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12974.33%±28.8−0.9σodds
7d62678.47%±12.8−1.4σodds
30d90184.60%±10.5−0.5σodds
All90184.60%±10.5−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 915 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 23$40639.4%3439.80.85×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 23$15014.5%4339.81.08×
AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 69$1334.3%013.30.00×
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 69$1264.1%013.30.00×
AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 69$1264.1%013.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 46$50.982.5%019.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 46$49.662.4%019.90.00×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 46$45.842.2%019.90.00×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 46$45.032.2%019.90.00×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 46$34.881.7%019.90.00×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 46$33.761.6%019.90.00×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 92$32.560.8%09.90.00×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 46$32.021.6%019.90.00×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 23$31.733.1%4639.81.16×
P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 92$30.650.7%09.90.00×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 46$30.381.5%019.90.00×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 92$29.390.7%09.90.00×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 92$28.760.7%09.90.00×
P90 | Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 92$28.600.7%09.90.00×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 92$27.430.7%09.90.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 23$22.662.2%3739.80.93×
P90 | Death Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 92$18.540.5%09.90.00×
P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 92$18.190.4%09.90.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 92$17.530.4%09.90.00×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 92$16.550.4%09.90.00×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 92$15.350.4%09.90.00×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 115$15.310.3%08.00.00×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 115$15.300.3%08.00.00×
MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 46$15.060.7%019.90.00×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 92$14.370.3%09.90.00×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 92$14.110.3%09.90.00×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 92$11.300.3%09.90.00×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 92$10.830.3%09.90.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 92$8.920.2%09.90.00×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 115$7.860.2%08.00.00×
MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 46$7.710.4%019.90.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 92$7.650.2%09.90.00×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 115$7.420.1%08.00.00×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 69$7.290.2%013.30.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 92$6.720.2%09.90.00×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 69$6.660.2%013.30.00×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 92$6.620.2%09.90.00×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 69$6.610.2%013.30.00×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 115$5.400.1%08.00.00×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 115$5.360.1%08.00.00×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 115$5.270.1%08.00.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 92$4.650.1%09.90.00×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 92$4.240.1%09.90.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 92$4.160.1%09.90.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 92$4.010.1%09.90.00×
MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 92$3.810.1%09.90.00×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 115$3.410.1%08.00.00×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 92$3.300.1%09.90.00×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 92$3.110.1%09.90.00×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 115$3.080.1%08.00.00×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 92$2.800.1%09.90.00×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 115$2.770.1%08.00.00×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 92$2.720.1%09.90.00×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 92$2.630.1%09.90.00×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 92$2.510.1%09.90.00×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 92$2.450.1%09.90.00×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 92$2.360.1%09.90.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 115$1.160.0%08.00.00×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 115$0.810.0%08.00.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 115$0.580.0%08.00.00×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 115$0.500.0%08.00.00×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 115$0.440.0%08.00.00×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 115$0.400.0%08.00.00×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 115$0.380.0%08.00.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 115$0.360.0%08.00.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 115$0.320.0%08.00.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 115$0.290.0%08.00.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/dart-club-joker, 12 Nov, 08:52 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
12 Nov, 08:52 UTC$51.1887.50%72
12 Nov, 02:49 UTC$51.3087.50%72
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC$51.4887.50%72
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$51.3087.50%72
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$51.4887.50%72
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$51.3187.51%72
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$51.5187.49%72
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$50.9587.49%72
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$50.4687.50%72
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$50.2887.50%72
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$50.4687.50%72
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$49.5487.51%72
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$50.4787.51%72
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$49.5487.51%72
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$48.9887.49%72
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$49.2387.51%72
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$48.9887.49%72
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$49.6987.50%72
3 Nov, 02:34 UTC$49.5387.50%72
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.4%sunny 4.3%red 4.3%classified 19.8%pink 16.3%Legendary 5.2%restricted 5.4%violet 12.6%uncommon 2.2%Mythical 2.6%#8847ff 1.1%#4b69ff 2.6%milspec 1.7%Rare 0.9%blue 2.6%Mil Spec 0.9%best hit —