DEMOLITION
A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$11.00
Advertised RTP
87.04%
EV $9.57 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.66%
13.9K openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 4,348 | $2,171 | 5.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 128 | $104 | 8.5% | 0 | 108.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 71 | $103 | 15.0% | 0 | 194.8 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 130 | $102 | 8.1% | 0 | 106.5 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 42 | $51.70 | 12.7% | 0 | 327.3 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 37 | $48.87 | 13.9% | 0 | 378.6 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 10 | $35.17 | 36.3% | 1,324 | 1373.2 | 0.96× |
| Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 82.1% | $0.02 | 0.2% | 11,458 | 11393.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/demolition, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.04% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $11.00 | 87.08% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.00 | 87.09% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.00 | 86.65% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.00 | 87.09% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.1%classified 9.9%blueLight 82.1%best hit $2,196 (199.6x)