DEMOLITION JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$539.19
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $471.79 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.58%
371 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 414 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $2,171 | 92.0% | 70 | 82.8 | 0.85× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $104 | 1.5% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $103 | 1.4% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $102 | 1.4% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $51.70 | 1.1% | 0 | 41.4 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $48.87 | 1.0% | 0 | 41.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $35.17 | 1.5% | 87 | 82.8 | 1.05× |
| Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 20.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 86 | 82.8 | 1.04× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/demolition-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $539 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $549 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $549 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $530 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $532 | 87.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 60.0%classified 20.0%blueLight 20.0%best hit $2,212 (4.03x)