DESERT EAGLE

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.31 from 103 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.99%

28.3K openings, odds method

Variance

10.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.30%±11.422,950 openings

7 days

85.00%±3.9724.2K openings

30 days

84.99%±3.6828.3K openings

since tracking started

84.99%±3.6828.3K openings

70.0%82.3%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,950	82.30%±11.4	−0.9σ	odds
7d	24.2K	85.00%±3.97	−1.4σ	odds
30d	28.3K	84.99%±3.68	−1.5σ	odds
All	28.3K	84.99%±3.68	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values103 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$797	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$564	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$541	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$262	0.4%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$231	0.4%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$198	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$174	0.7%	1	1.4	0.71×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$119	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$109	0.8%	3	2.8	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$93.39	0.6%	3	2.5	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100,000	$91.89	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$83.48	0.6%	3	2.8	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100,000	$81.18	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$75.37	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$52.36	0.8%	1	5.7	0.18×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,762	$43.39	0.7%	5	5.9	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50,000	$41.17	0.1%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33,333	$39.14	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$38.10	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$37.46	0.3%	0	2.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 33,333	$33.32	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33,333	$30.88	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 100,000	$27.49	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33,333	$26.99	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16,667	$24.54	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$22.92	0.2%	0	2.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$22.35	0.2%	0	2.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$21.99	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$20.50	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$17.82	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 33,333	$13.85	0.0%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$12.26	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$11.87	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$10.57	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$9.67	0.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 8,333	$8.18	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$6.67	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,205	$6.56	0.4%	0	23.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,149	$6.41	0.4%	0	24.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 9,091	$6.23	0.1%	0	3.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 68	$5.63	6.3%	0	416.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$5.43	9.3%	0	639.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$3.04	2.8%	0	343.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$2.94	3.0%	0	381.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$2.51	4.7%	0	690.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 73	$2.37	2.5%	0	389.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 35	$2.33	5.0%	0	801.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.97	10.0%	0	1894.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 19	$1.90	7.4%	0	1454.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 44	$1.64	2.9%	0	650.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.41	1.5%	0	408.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$1.39	1.7%	0	450.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$1.39	1.5%	0	405.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$1.37	1.6%	0	432.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.32	1.7%	0	465.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$1.30	1.8%	0	514.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$1.29	1.8%	0	522.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 60	$1.29	1.6%	0	470.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$1.24	1.7%	0	509.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$1.22	2.8%	0	843.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$1.22	2.8%	0	843.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.03	1.1%	0	394.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 139	$1.01	0.6%	0	204.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 221	$0.96	0.3%	0	128.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$0.92	0.6%	0	237.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 143	$0.90	0.5%	0	198.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 253	$0.90	0.3%	0	112.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 107	$0.86	0.6%	0	264.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 181	$0.70	0.3%	0	156.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$0.69	0.6%	0	303.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 157	$0.67	0.3%	0	179.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 358	$0.67	0.1%	0	79.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 87	$0.66	0.6%	0	326.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 207	$0.61	0.2%	0	136.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 107	$0.61	0.4%	0	264.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 104	$0.60	0.4%	0	271.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 174	$0.58	0.3%	0	163.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 96	$0.57	0.5%	0	294.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 288	$0.57	0.2%	0	98.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 315	$0.57	0.1%	0	89.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 115	$0.55	0.4%	0	246.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 105	$0.52	0.4%	0	269.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 225	$0.50	0.2%	0	126.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 102	$0.49	0.4%	0	276.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 96	$0.49	0.4%	0	296.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 68	$0.38	0.4%	0	415.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 88	$0.38	0.3%	0	320.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 93	$0.37	0.3%	0	303.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 65	$0.37	0.4%	0	433.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 158	$0.37	0.2%	0	179.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 57	$0.29	0.4%	0	493.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$0.26	0.4%	0	588.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.24	0.4%	0	605.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 47	$0.24	0.4%	0	605.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 56	$0.21	0.3%	0	503.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.21	0.3%	0	443.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 54	$0.20	0.3%	0	523.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.20	0.3%	0	544.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 42	$0.17	0.3%	0	679.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$0.17	0.3%	0	706.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$0.17	0.3%	0	621.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 34	$0.15	0.3%	0	829.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 37	$0.15	0.3%	0	758.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/desert-eagle, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.50$239159.0x1d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCZORT$1.50$179119.4x1d

Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted3$1.50$11576.96x7d

Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.50$11576.89x5d

Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.50$10972.52x1d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.50$93.3962.26x18h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcamellekkskins.army$1.50$89.7659.84x6d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.50$87.0958.06x2d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.50$84.0656.04x1d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.50$83.1955.46x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Bronze Decoweapon · bluesensei.$1.50$0.330.22x2m

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strikeweapon · violetNiTeK$1.50$1.400.93x2m

Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violet$1.50$1.360.91x2m

Desert Eagle | Calligraffitiweapon · milspec$1.50$1.370.91x2m

Desert Eagle | Mint Fanweapon · bluemrozi _lt;3 skins.army$1.50$0.230.15x2m

Desert Eagle | Tiltedweapon · blueLight$1.50$0.530.35x7m

Desert Eagle | Blue Plyweapon · blue$1.50$2.101.40x7m

Desert Eagle | Bronze Decoweapon · bluemrozi _lt;3 skins.army$1.50$0.330.22x7m

Desert Eagle | Blue Plyweapon · blueTomczak skins.army$1.50$2.101.40x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.50	87.50%	103
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$1.50	87.82%	103
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$1.50	87.79%	103
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$1.50	87.88%	103
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$1.50	87.96%	103
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$1.50	87.92%	103
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$1.50	87.43%	103
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$1.50	87.21%	103
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$1.50	87.98%	103
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$1.50	87.29%	103
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.50	87.68%	103
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$1.50	87.46%	103
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$1.50	87.79%	103
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.50	88.09%	103
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$1.50	87.46%	103
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$1.50	88.20%	103
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$1.50	87.77%	103

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.0%rare 0.0%restricted 10.5%classified 0.2%covert 0.0%industrial 0.0%mil spec 7.3%Ancient 0.0%uncommon 5.2%Classified 0.0%blue 15.0%Industrial Grade 0.0%violet 16.4%Legendary 0.1%pink 6.1%#8847ff 4.4%Mythical 3.5%blueLight 7.1%Rare 4.4%Uncommon 0.3%#4b69ff 12.9%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%#5e98d9 2.4%milspec 2.2%best hit $239 (159.0x)