DESERT EAGLE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$112.40

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $98.35 from 103 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.23%

672 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.35%±31.09109 openings

7 days

93.34%±12.98620 openings

30 days

97.23%±12.47672 openings

since tracking started

97.23%±12.47672 openings

51.5%83.3%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	109	83.35%±31.1	−0.3σ	odds
7d	620	93.34%±13.0	+0.9σ	odds
30d	672	97.23%±12.5	+1.5σ	odds
All	672	97.23%±12.5	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values103 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 742 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$797	24.6%	27	22.5	1.20×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$564	17.4%	28	22.5	1.25×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$541	16.7%	25	22.5	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$262	8.1%	25	22.5	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$231	7.1%	19	22.5	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 165	$198	1.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$174	5.4%	23	22.5	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$119	0.7%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$109	3.4%	23	22.5	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$93.39	2.9%	19	22.5	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 99	$91.89	0.9%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$83.48	2.6%	21	22.5	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 99	$81.18	0.8%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 165	$75.37	0.5%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$52.36	1.6%	16	22.5	0.71×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33	$43.39	1.3%	24	22.5	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 165	$41.17	0.3%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 165	$39.14	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$38.10	0.4%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$37.46	0.4%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 99	$33.32	0.3%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 165	$30.88	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 99	$27.49	0.3%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 99	$26.99	0.3%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 99	$24.54	0.3%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$22.92	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$22.35	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$21.99	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$20.50	0.2%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$17.82	0.1%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 99	$13.85	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$12.26	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$11.87	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$10.57	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$9.67	0.1%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$8.18	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$6.67	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 99	$6.56	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$6.41	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 165	$6.23	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$5.63	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 165	$5.43	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$3.04	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$2.94	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$2.51	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 165	$2.37	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 132	$2.33	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$1.97	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 165	$1.90	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 165	$1.64	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$1.41	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 165	$1.39	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$1.39	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$1.37	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$1.32	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$1.30	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$1.29	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$1.29	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$1.24	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$1.22	0.0%	0	11.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 66	$1.22	0.0%	0	11.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$1.03	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$1.01	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 165	$0.96	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$0.92	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 165	$0.90	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 165	$0.90	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$0.86	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 165	$0.70	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$0.69	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 165	$0.67	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.67	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$0.66	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.61	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$0.61	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 165	$0.60	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 132	$0.58	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 165	$0.57	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 165	$0.57	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.57	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 165	$0.55	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.52	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 165	$0.50	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.49	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 165	$0.49	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.38	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 132	$0.38	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.37	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.37	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 165	$0.37	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 132	$0.29	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 132	$0.26	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.24	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 165	$0.24	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.21	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.21	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 165	$0.20	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.20	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 165	$0.17	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.17	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 165	$0.17	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 165	$0.15	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 165	$0.15	0.0%	0	4.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/desert-eagle-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$114$8127.13x6d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareleosia_krolowa$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareZygzak McQueen$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareBMW enjoyer _lt;3$114$8127.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$114$8047.04x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$113$1751.55x19m

Desert Eagle | Light Railweapon · restricted$113$4.820.04x19m

Desert Eagle | Midnight Stormweapon · blueLight$113$44.550.40x19m

Desert Eagle | Starcadeweapon · pink_quot;S_quot; KING$113$77.040.68x19m

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$113$7977.07x53m

Desert Eagle | Blue Plyweapon · blue$113$1.470.01x53m

Desert Eagle | Bronze Decoweapon · blueŁosiuuu$113$0.380.00x53m

Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violet$113$26.470.23x2h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Disciplineweapon · violet$113$2.130.02x2h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancientziomek$113$42.240.38x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$112	87.50%	103
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$113	87.50%	103
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$114	87.50%	103
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$114	87.50%	103
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$114	87.50%	103
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$114	87.50%	103
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$114	87.50%	103
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$113	87.50%	103
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$110	87.50%	103
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$113	87.50%	103
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$110	87.50%	103
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$111	87.50%	103
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$111	87.50%	103
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$114	87.50%	103

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.6%rare 4.8%restricted 20.0%classified 16.2%covert 9.1%industrial 2.0%mil spec 6.3%Ancient 3.0%uncommon 2.4%Classified 1.0%blue 7.4%Industrial Grade 1.0%violet 5.3%Legendary 1.0%pink 3.0%#8847ff 2.4%Mythical 1.4%blueLight 1.8%Rare 3.0%Uncommon 0.6%#4b69ff 5.8%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%#5e98d9 0.6%milspec 0.6%best hit $812 (7.13x)