DUCK LUCK
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.88 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.46%
16.8K openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.65% – 87.28%, 16,846 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/duck-luck, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 88.23% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 86.92% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 87.08% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.00 | 84.66% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.01% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1.00 | 87.86% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 88.39% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.00 | 88.16% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 88.45% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.64% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 88.45% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 88.12% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 88.11% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 88.19% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 88.33% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%classified 1.1%Legendary 0.0%uncommon 0.7%#8847ff 2.1%violet 55.8%Mythical 40.2%best hit $66.45 (66.45x)