DUCK LUCK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$17.57

Advertised RTP

87.51%

EV $15.37 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.74%

6,995 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.59%±8.93760 openings

7 days

88.21%±3.255,701 openings

30 days

85.74%±2.946,995 openings

since tracking started

85.74%±2.946,995 openings

77.0%86.5%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	760	86.59%±8.93	−0.3σ	odds
7d	5,701	88.21%±3.25	+0.5σ	odds
30d	6,995	85.74%±2.94	−1.1σ	odds
All	6,995	85.74%±2.94	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,999 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	10.0%	$67.12	43.7%	667	699.9	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$47.02	30.6%	713	699.9	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$20.72	13.5%	677	699.9	0.97×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$14.08	2.3%	0	175.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$8.18	1.3%	0	175.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$5.77	0.9%	0	175.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$5.01	3.3%	683	699.9	0.98×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 40	$4.48	0.7%	0	175.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$2.03	1.3%	678	699.9	0.97×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	10.0%	$1.48	1.0%	711	699.9	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	10.0%	$1.06	0.7%	748	699.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$0.75	0.5%	742	699.9	1.06×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.0%	$0.43	0.3%	691	699.9	0.99×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/duck-luck-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$17.57$47.022.68x2m

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$17.57$1.060.06x2m

MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert❤ Gamble ❤$17.57$47.022.68x2m

Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$17.57$20.721.18x11m

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pinkunknown$17.57$8.130.46x11m

P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$17.57$0.750.04x11m

MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedunknown$17.57$5.010.29x11m

PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$17.57$2.030.12x11m

MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covertunknown$17.57$47.022.68x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$17.57	87.51%	13
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$17.84	87.51%	13
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$17.34	87.49%	13
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$17.27	87.48%	13
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$17.66	87.49%	13
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$17.27	87.48%	13
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$17.63	87.52%	13
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$17.44	87.49%	13
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$18.10	87.52%	13
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$17.68	87.51%	13
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$17.44	87.49%	13
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$17.34	87.50%	13
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$17.41	87.49%	13
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$17.44	87.52%	13
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$17.15	87.52%	13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$17.38	87.50%	13
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$17.47	87.52%	13
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$17.24	87.48%	13
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$17.58	87.51%	13
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$17.24	87.48%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.0%classified 20.0%Legendary 2.5%uncommon 7.5%#8847ff 10.0%violet 30.0%Mythical 10.0%best hit —