DUEL

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.75

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.16 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.05%

22.8K openings, odds method

Variance

5.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.98%±8.133,136 openings

7 days

88.01%±3.0520.3K openings

30 days

89.05%±2.8622.8K openings

since tracking started

89.05%±2.8622.8K openings

79.0%88.0%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,136	87.98%±8.13	+0.1σ	odds
7d	20.3K	88.01%±3.05	+0.2σ	odds
30d	22.8K	89.05%±2.86	+0.9σ	odds
All	22.8K	89.05%±2.86	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$580	1.1%	1	1.8	0.55×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$423	1.0%	5	2.3	2.19×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$280	0.9%	3	3.2	0.94×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$261	0.9%	2	3.4	0.58×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 5,000	$195	0.9%	6	4.6	1.31×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$172	1.0%	4	5.3	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$143	0.3%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,571	$138	0.9%	2	6.4	0.31×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$137	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,448	$135	0.9%	12	6.6	1.81×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$128	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100,000	$109	0.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$109	0.9%	5	8.0	0.63×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$60.22	0.3%	0	5.5	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$58.55	0.2%	0	3.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$56.82	0.9%	13	15.3	0.85×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$55.92	0.2%	0	4.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$54.89	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$53.73	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$53.21	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,762	$46.69	0.2%	0	4.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,632	$45.56	0.4%	0	8.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,167	$43.39	0.3%	0	5.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$40.36	0.3%	0	6.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,818	$38.08	0.5%	0	12.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$36.15	0.6%	0	15.1	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,125	$35.86	0.3%	0	7.3	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,439	$31.49	0.3%	0	9.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,128	$29.59	0.3%	0	10.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$25.62	0.2%	0	6.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$18.57	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 172	$17.07	2.4%	0	132.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$16.80	5.9%	0	335.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 106	$14.77	3.3%	0	214.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$14.15	7.0%	0	472.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$8.73	3.1%	0	339.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 110	$8.57	1.9%	0	208.5	0.00×
Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable	1 in 12	$7.53	14.9%	1,733	1882.6	0.92×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$6.74	5.0%	0	704.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$5.78	7.1%	0	1163.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$4.76	8.6%	0	1715.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 71	$4.59	1.6%	0	322.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$4.43	2.6%	0	555.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$3.52	1.7%	0	453.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$3.35	1.7%	0	485.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$2.28	0.5%	0	212.4	0.00×
Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6	1 in 12	$1.87	3.7%	1,881	1901.4	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.30	0.6%	0	466.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 48	$1.29	0.6%	0	471.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$1.24	0.7%	0	498.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 10	$1.24	2.9%	2,108	2240.8	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.19	0.7%	0	527.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	10.5%	$1.04	2.6%	2,471	2404.3	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	10.8%	$0.98	2.5%	2,466	2462.1	1.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	10.9%	$0.95	2.5%	2,617	2482.9	1.05×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/duel, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$4.75$595125.2x1d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert????GOAT????$4.75$43892.18x6d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertmarcinlubikluski$4.75$43792.09x7d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$4.75$43791.99x7d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertRexhaz$4.75$43791.99x7d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$4.75$43391.22x1d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.75$27958.76x1d

★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$4.75$27958.68x5d

★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$4.75$26155.01x4h

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.75$25954.58x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Exposureweapon · violet$4.75$1.350.28x28s

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$4.75$7.181.51x28s

Sticker | Bolt Strike (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$4.75$1.870.39x28s

Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkableSoBoL BuK$4.75$7.531.59x28s

Sticker | Bolt Strike (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6LASTPEOPLE$4.75$1.870.39x4m

Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$4.75$7.531.59x9m

UMP-45 | Exposureweapon · violet$4.75$1.350.28x9m

AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · graySoBoL BuK$4.75$0.950.20x9m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · grayVanish$4.75$1.240.26x10m

AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · grayℝ????????????????????$4.75$0.950.20x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.75	87.50%	55
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$4.75	87.39%	55
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$4.75	87.56%	55
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.75	87.78%	55
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.75	87.46%	55
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.75	87.22%	55
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$4.75	87.46%	55
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$4.75	87.22%	55
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.75	87.40%	55
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$4.75	87.94%	55
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$4.75	87.97%	55
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$4.75	87.85%	55
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$4.75	87.80%	55
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.75	87.85%	55
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.75	87.66%	55
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.75	88.00%	55
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$4.75	87.81%	55
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$4.75	87.97%	55
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.75	87.31%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%classified 3.6%rare 0.0%red 0.2%Mythical 0.9%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.1%uncommon 16.3%Legendary 0.9%pink 3.9%remarkable 8.2%#8847ff 3.4%violet 8.7%restricted 3.0%#d32ce6 8.3%gray 20.7%Consumer Grade 10.5%grey 10.8%best hit $595 (125.2x)