ELECTRONIC
A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$33.00
Advertised RTP
87.05%
EV $28.73 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.28%
6,731 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,732 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 621 | $1,123 | 6.3% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 481 | $826 | 6.0% | 0 | 14.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 243 | $816 | 11.7% | 23 | 27.7 | 0.83× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 450 | $787 | 6.1% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 29 | $268 | 32.7% | 222 | 236.1 | 0.94× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $105 | 33.6% | 598 | 617.0 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 13.4% | $3.66 | 1.7% | 820 | 903.7 | 0.91× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 72.9% | $0.80 | 2.0% | 5,032 | 4907.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/electronic, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $33.00 | 87.05% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $33.00 | 87.10% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $33.00 | 86.98% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $33.00 | 87.02% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $33.00 | 86.99% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $33.00 | 87.20% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $33.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $33.00 | 87.04% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $33.00 | 87.05% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $33.00 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $33.00 | 87.05% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $33.00 | 87.06% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $33.00 | 87.10% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $33.00 | 86.70% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $33.00 | 86.84% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.2%covert 4.3%classified 9.2%restricted 86.3%best hit $1,179 (35.71x)