EMPRESS

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.31 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.25%

26.9K openings, odds method

Variance

13.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.91%±13.192,974 openings

7 days

82.15%±4.8223.2K openings

30 days

82.25%±4.5026.9K openings

since tracking started

82.25%±4.5026.9K openings

75.0%89.0%103.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.73% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.75% – 86.76%, 26,859 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,974	88.91%±13.2	+0.2σ	odds
7d	23.2K	82.15%±4.82	−2.3σ	odds
30d	26.9K	82.25%±4.50	−2.4σ	odds
All	26.9K	82.25%±4.50	−2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$580	1.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$280	0.6%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$256	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$243	1.7%	0	2.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$222	1.4%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$137	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$131	0.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$55.89	0.9%	4	5.4	0.74×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$43.38	1.7%	0	13.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$42.35	0.5%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$39.41	1.5%	0	13.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$37.58	1.7%	0	16.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$37.36	3.1%	34	29.6	1.15×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$31.38	1.7%	0	18.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$9.67	0.4%	0	13.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 345	$5.95	1.3%	0	78.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$4.73	2.7%	0	201.6	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$4.13	6.0%	0	516.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 86	$3.81	3.4%	0	311.9	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 86	$3.81	3.4%	0	311.9	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 74	$3.68	3.8%	0	365.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 233	$3.64	1.2%	0	115.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$3.50	4.0%	0	400.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 60	$3.30	4.2%	0	451.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$2.51	11.1%	1,449	1567.5	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$1.91	8.3%	0	1532.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$1.58	10.0%	0	2239.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 60	$1.58	2.0%	0	446.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 74	$1.45	1.5%	0	363.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$1.39	4.6%	0	1161.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 71	$1.39	1.5%	0	376.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.16	1.6%	0	500.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 99	$1.07	0.8%	0	271.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 49	$0.69	1.1%	0	551.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$0.69	1.1%	0	551.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 51	$0.67	1.0%	0	529.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$0.67	1.1%	0	575.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$0.57	1.1%	0	685.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.52	1.2%	0	793.1	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 61	$0.47	0.6%	0	440.9	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$0.35	0.7%	0	707.1	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$0.29	0.8%	0	954.5	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$0.26	0.8%	0	1137.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.14	0.3%	0	857.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	12.4%	$0.06	0.6%	0	3325.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	16.5%	$0.05	0.6%	0	4441.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/empress, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Case Hardenedweapon · pink$1.50$243162.3x6d

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · redWidar CS2.ME$1.50$14798.02x20h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$1.50$14697.64x2d

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$1.50$14496.12x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | 27weapon · blue---b7---$1.50$0.320.21x16s

Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violet$1.50$1.480.99x20s

AWP | Mortisweapon · pinkPiter777_skins.army$1.50$4.372.91x20s

USP-S | 27weapon · blueThomass_CZ:: -_-| CS2.ME$1.50$0.320.21x21s

P2000 | Sure Gripweapon · milspectakeN$1.50$0.060.04x21s

Dual Berettas | Angel Eyesweapon · restricted---b7---$1.50$0.760.51x24s

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violet---b7---$1.50$1.511.01x32s

P2000 | Sure Gripweapon · milspec---b7---$1.50$0.060.04x40s

USP-S | Ticket to Hellweapon · violet---b7---$1.50$0.740.49x48s

Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violetNRForceTomi$1.50$1.480.99x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.50	87.50%	46
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$1.50	87.90%	46
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$1.50	87.47%	46
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$1.50	87.61%	46
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$1.50	87.04%	46
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.50	88.25%	46
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$1.50	87.04%	46
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$1.50	88.25%	46
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$1.50	87.74%	46
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$1.50	88.39%	46
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$1.50	87.88%	46
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.50	87.66%	46
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.50	87.55%	46
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.50	87.03%	46
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.50	87.60%	46
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$1.50	87.84%	46
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$1.50	87.69%	46
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$1.50	87.14%	46

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 2.1%restricted 14.6%red 0.1%Legendary 0.3%pink 3.7%Mythical 14.7%#8847ff 10.0%violet 10.2%blue 12.0%milspec 19.7%#4b69ff 12.4%best hit $243 (162.3x)