EWRON
A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $21.87 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.14%
6,973 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.46% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.88% – 87.41%, 6,973 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,006 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/ewron, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $25.00 | 87.36% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.32% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.22% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.22% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $25.00 | 87.75% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $25.00 | 87.30% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $25.00 | 87.75% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.34% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $25.00 | 87.78% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.13% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.64% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $25.00 | 87.82% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $25.00 | 87.72% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $25.00 | 87.41% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.39% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%legendary 0.1%covert 7.9%classified 29.6%uncommon 3.1%Ancient 0.7%extraordinary 2.3%red 3.1%#ffd700 2.5%pink 4.8%rare 1.0%industrial 1.6%Classified 1.8%Mil Spec Grade 0.2%blueLight 3.0%blue 16.9%#4b69ff 2.8%mil spec 1.7%#d32ee6 2.6%#8847ff 11.7%Rare 2.5%best hit $775 (31.00x)