EWRON JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$116.29
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $101.75 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.97%
701 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.30% – 111.63%, 701 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 704 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/ewron-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 4.5%legendary 4.5%covert 22.7%classified 15.9%uncommon 3.8%Ancient 1.5%extraordinary 4.5%red 5.3%#ffd700 4.5%pink 5.7%rare 1.5%industrial 2.3%Classified 1.5%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%blueLight 2.3%blue 6.8%#4b69ff 2.3%mil spec 2.3%#d32ee6 1.1%#8847ff 4.5%Rare 1.1%best hit $781 (6.52x)