FARM GAMMA
A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.06 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.09%
41.3K openings, odds method
Variance
36.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 95
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 10,000 | $637 | 2.1% | 10 | 4.1 | 2.42× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 333 | $282 | 27.6% | 96 | 124.0 | 0.77× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 135 | $114 | 27.6% | 263 | 305.9 | 0.86× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3)weapon · red · Phase 3 | 1 in 106 | $89.86 | 27.6% | 400 | 388.5 | 1.03× |
| UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 10 | $1.51 | 4.9% | 2,585 | 4121.1 | 0.63× |
| Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common | 11.8% | $1.01 | 3.9% | 3,886 | 4856.9 | 0.80× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 13.1% | $0.70 | 3.0% | 7,447 | 5423.2 | 1.37× |
| MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 16.8% | $0.31 | 1.7% | 5,009 | 6923.6 | 0.72× |
| Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 20.8% | $0.15 | 1.0% | 14,039 | 8605.9 | 1.63× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 25.6% | $0.08 | 0.7% | 7,600 | 10581.8 | 0.72× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-gamma, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.50 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.50 | 87.14% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.50 | 86.79% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.50 | 87.06% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.50 | 87.12% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.50 | 86.88% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.50 | 87.21% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.50 | 87.21% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.50 | 87.12% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.50 | 87.35% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $3.50 | 86.53% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.50 | 87.15% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $3.50 | 86.95% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.50 | 86.81% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%red 0.9%restricted 10.0%common 11.8%Rare 13.1%blue 16.8%light blue 20.8%#4b69ff 25.6%best hit $644 (183.9x)