FARM GAMMA JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$128.04
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $112.04 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.65%
858 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 930 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 10.0% | $634 | 56.6% | 103 | 93.0 | 1.11× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $278 | 24.8% | 86 | 93.0 | 0.92× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $115 | 10.2% | 81 | 93.0 | 0.87× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3)weapon · red · Phase 3 | 10.0% | $89.86 | 8.0% | 104 | 93.0 | 1.12× |
| UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.51 | 0.1% | 100 | 93.0 | 1.08× |
| Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common | 10.0% | $1.01 | 0.1% | 95 | 93.0 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $0.67 | 0.1% | 73 | 93.0 | 0.78× |
| MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.31 | 0.0% | 88 | 93.0 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 10.0% | $0.12 | 0.0% | 106 | 93.0 | 1.14× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $0.08 | 0.0% | 94 | 93.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-gamma-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $128 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $128 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $127 | 88.87% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $130 | 85.84% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%red 10.0%restricted 10.0%common 10.0%Rare 10.0%blue 10.0%light blue 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit $644 (4.97x)