FARM KNIFE
A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.63 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.44%
36.2K openings, odds method
Variance
32.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 86
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 263 | $211 | 30.6% | 34 | 137.7 | 0.25× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 128 | $103 | 30.7% | 240 | 282.7 | 0.85× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 74 | $59.50 | 30.6% | 854 | 489.3 | 1.75× |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 15 | $1.03 | 2.6% | 2,145 | 2363.1 | 0.91× |
| Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · grey | 1 in 14 | $0.60 | 1.6% | 3,758 | 2584.2 | 1.45× |
| P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $0.47 | 1.4% | 3,828 | 2783.5 | 1.38× |
| Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray | 1 in 12 | $0.37 | 1.2% | 7,558 | 2990.1 | 2.53× |
| Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $0.28 | 1.0% | 1,413 | 3247.5 | 0.44× |
| AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 17.5% | $0.03 | 0.2% | 6,551 | 6349.9 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 17.5% | $0.03 | 0.2% | 7,824 | 6349.9 | 1.23× |
| Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 23.9% | $0.01 | 0.1% | 2,039 | 8665.9 | 0.24× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-knife, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.00 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.03% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.11% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.00 | 87.09% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.00 | 86.57% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3.00 | 88.69% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.00 | 89.53% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.00 | 89.76% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%violet 6.5%grey 7.1%restricted 7.7%gray 8.3%#4b69ff 9.0%#87c7ff 17.5%Uncommon 17.5%consumer 23.9%best hit $224 (74.63x)