FARM KNIFE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$38.48
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $33.67 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.47%
5,245 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,253 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $212 | 57.2% | 442 | 477.5 | 0.93× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $100 | 27.1% | 493 | 477.6 | 1.03× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 11 | $55.63 | 15.0% | 479 | 477.6 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 11 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 453 | 477.6 | 0.95× |
| Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · grey | 1 in 11 | $0.60 | 0.2% | 474 | 477.6 | 0.99× |
| P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 465 | 477.6 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray | 1 in 11 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 482 | 477.6 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 482 | 477.6 | 1.01× |
| AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 512 | 477.6 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 479 | 477.6 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 11 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 492 | 477.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/farm-knife-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $38.48 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $39.13 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $39.28 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $38.58 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $39.66 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $39.57 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $40.07 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $39.91 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $40.34 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $40.23 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $40.11 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $40.07 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $40.11 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $39.49 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $39.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $40.46 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.28 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $37.74 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $38.82 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $40.15 | 87.49% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.3%violet 9.1%grey 9.1%restricted 9.1%gray 9.1%#4b69ff 9.1%#87c7ff 9.1%Uncommon 9.1%consumer 9.1%best hit —