FLICK JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$37.47
Advertised RTP
87.49%
EV $32.78 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
13.23%
7,471 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.38% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6.42% – 20.03%, 7,471 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,544 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/flick-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $37.47 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $37.46 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $37.48 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $34.95 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $35.08 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $34.96 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $34.99 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $35.00 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $34.96 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $35.03 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $35.01 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $35.03 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $35.01 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $34.86 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $35.04 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $34.86 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $34.99 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $35.10 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $34.99 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 07:27 UTC | $35.10 | 87.49% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 16.7%pink 12.5%exotic 8.3%Mythical 12.5%#8847ff 4.2%violet 8.3%red 4.2%Legendary 8.3%Exotic 4.2%Ancient 4.2%blue 12.5%Rare 4.2%best hit —