FOXIE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.50 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.22%

12.4K openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.07%±8.091,735 openings

7 days

85.71%±3.3410.7K openings

30 days

86.22%±3.1112.4K openings

since tracking started

86.22%±3.1112.4K openings

79.5%88.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,735	88.07%±8.09	+0.1σ	odds
7d	10.7K	85.71%±3.34	−1.1σ	odds
30d	12.4K	86.22%±3.11	−0.9σ	odds
All	12.4K	86.22%±3.11	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 50,000	$546	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$340	0.8%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$280	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 10,000	$267	0.8%	3	1.2	2.42×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$262	0.4%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$242	0.3%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$128	0.5%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$110	0.6%	1	2.5	0.40×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$89.88	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$74.10	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$53.92	0.4%	3	3.6	0.83×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$51.04	0.1%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$44.91	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$42.00	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$41.03	0.2%	0	2.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$38.48	0.1%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,545	$37.36	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$24.27	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$24.24	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$23.85	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$23.61	0.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 4,348	$22.11	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 6,250	$21.04	0.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$17.82	0.0%	0	0.9	—
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 7,692	$16.39	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,020	$15.80	0.4%	9	12.1	0.74×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$15.65	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$15.51	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 88	$13.65	4.4%	0	140.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$12.55	4.8%	0	166.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 481	$12.47	0.7%	0	25.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$12.34	4.9%	0	171.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$10.41	3.1%	0	129.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 22	$9.77	12.9%	0	575.0	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 251	$9.05	1.0%	0	49.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 71	$8.90	3.6%	0	174.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 123	$8.86	2.1%	0	100.8	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 319	$8.64	0.8%	0	38.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 94	$7.65	2.3%	0	131.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$6.28	5.1%	0	350.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 379	$6.03	0.5%	0	32.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$5.94	2.3%	0	169.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 72	$5.88	2.3%	0	172.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$5.65	5.3%	0	403.5	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 201	$5.25	0.7%	0	61.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 51	$4.94	2.8%	0	244.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 89	$4.88	1.6%	0	139.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 84	$4.80	1.6%	0	148.2	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 151	$4.61	0.9%	0	82.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 337	$4.41	0.4%	0	36.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$4.24	1.9%	0	189.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$4.22	1.8%	0	186.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$4.16	1.8%	0	192.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 58	$4.01	2.0%	0	212.3	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$3.04	0.7%	0	95.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 250	$2.63	0.3%	0	49.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$2.20	1.1%	0	218.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$2.08	1.1%	0	238.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$2.02	1.2%	0	249.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 148	$1.95	0.4%	0	83.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 102	$1.85	0.5%	0	121.0	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$1.81	1.3%	0	306.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 37	$1.70	1.3%	0	334.3	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 49	$1.65	1.0%	0	254.0	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.61	1.0%	0	264.1	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$1.56	1.0%	0	277.7	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.29	1.6%	0	526.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.13	0.7%	0	266.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$1.01	0.6%	0	239.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.92	1.9%	0	892.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.90	0.8%	0	382.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$0.80	0.6%	0	348.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.80	0.6%	0	348.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.78	0.9%	0	481.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$0.73	0.7%	0	403.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$0.66	0.7%	0	451.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 22	$0.58	0.7%	0	554.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.54	0.8%	0	622.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/foxie, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyTomczak skins.army$4.00$27568.66x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$4.00$27468.51x4d

SSG 08 | Dragonfireweapon · red????????????????????_????????$4.00$27468.50x8d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$4.00$26766.87x3h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violet$4.00$0.750.19x39s

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violet$4.00$0.880.22x39s

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkRuJiRu$4.00$6.381.60x39s

M4A1-S | Leaded Glassweapon · pink$4.00$12.833.21x2m

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbitweapon · violet$4.00$1.130.28x2m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetRuJiRu$4.00$0.750.19x2m

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbitweapon · violet$4.00$1.130.28x2m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pink$4.00$9.822.46x2m

MP9 | Mount Fujiweapon · violet$4.00$7.041.76x2m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink76561198957761365$4.00$6.381.60x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$4.00	87.50%	78
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$4.00	87.49%	78
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$4.00	87.85%	78
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.00	87.62%	78
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$4.00	87.50%	78
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$4.00	87.58%	78
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.00	87.50%	78
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$4.00	87.58%	78
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$4.00	87.46%	78
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$4.00	87.41%	78
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.00	87.60%	78
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$4.00	87.68%	78
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.00	87.27%	78
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.00	87.59%	78
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$4.00	87.43%	78
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$4.00	87.89%	78
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.00	87.68%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%classified 8.8%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%Legendary 9.9%pink 5.3%violet 18.5%restricted 27.7%#8847ff 4.1%Mythical 17.8%Classified 1.4%#d32ee6 2.0%uncommon 4.5%best hit $275 (68.66x)