FOXIE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$96.82

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $84.72 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.20%

402 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98 openings · below min

7 days

84.47%±14.42376 openings

30 days

86.20%±13.96402 openings

since tracking started

86.20%±13.96402 openings

69.5%102.8%136.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	98	107.79%±27.5	—	odds
7d	376	84.47%±14.4	−0.4σ	odds
30d	402	86.20%±14.0	−0.2σ	odds
All	402	86.20%±14.0	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 454 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 27	$553	24.2%	15	16.8	0.89×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$345	15.1%	15	16.8	0.89×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$280	6.1%	0	8.4	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 27	$272	11.9%	17	16.8	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$262	11.4%	22	16.8	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$242	5.3%	0	8.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$144	6.3%	16	16.8	0.95×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 27	$111	4.9%	10	16.8	0.59×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$89.73	1.0%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$74.94	0.8%	0	4.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$53.92	2.4%	17	16.8	1.01×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$51.04	1.1%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 54	$44.72	1.0%	0	8.4	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 54	$42.34	0.9%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 54	$42.00	0.9%	0	8.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$38.16	0.4%	0	4.2	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 54	$35.22	0.8%	0	8.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 108	$24.97	0.3%	0	4.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$23.85	0.3%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$23.61	0.3%	0	4.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$23.58	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$21.57	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$21.14	0.5%	0	8.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$17.82	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$16.39	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$16.38	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$16.28	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 27	$16.00	0.7%	26	16.8	1.55×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$13.82	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$12.53	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.44	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.12	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$10.69	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 54	$9.81	0.2%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 81	$9.03	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$8.86	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 108	$8.85	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$8.64	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$7.74	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$6.56	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 81	$6.00	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$5.89	0.1%	0	8.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$5.51	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$5.25	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 81	$5.19	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$5.02	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$4.93	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$4.73	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$4.51	0.0%	0	4.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$4.46	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$4.24	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$4.19	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$3.98	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$3.92	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$3.15	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$2.60	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$2.20	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$2.08	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$2.04	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$2.03	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$2.02	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$1.81	0.0%	0	4.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$1.67	0.0%	0	8.4	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$1.62	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.61	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.55	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.26	0.0%	0	4.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.09	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$1.03	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.93	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$0.92	0.0%	0	8.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.81	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.80	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.78	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$0.70	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.66	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.54	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 135	$0.44	0.0%	0	3.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/foxie-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$99.31$6276.31x5d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$100$6256.25x5d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$99.62$6226.25x3d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$99.24$6126.17x2d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldgrochalek$98.93$6076.14x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$99.39$6056.09x8d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldK1ddy_K1skins.army$97.84$5705.83x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · golddredek$96.82$5535.71x1h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldMar_Bat123 OsloRP$96.82$5535.71x2h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · pinkdredek$96.82$9.010.09x1h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSayouri$96.82$1441.49x1h

SSG 08 | Dragonfireweapon · redwh1sky$96.82$2612.69x1h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · golddredek$96.82$5535.71x1h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pinkSayouri$96.82$30.430.31x1h

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pinkwh1sky$96.82$7.780.08x1h

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbitweapon · violet$96.82$1.300.01x2h

Negev | Power Loaderweapon · violet$96.82$4.110.04x2h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldMar_Bat123 OsloRP$96.82$5535.71x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$96.82	87.50%	78
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$95.41	87.50%	78
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$96.82	87.50%	78
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$97.84	87.50%	78
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$98.93	87.50%	78
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$99.24	87.50%	78
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$99.55	87.50%	78
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$99.62	87.50%	78
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$99.24	87.50%	78
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$100	87.50%	78
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$99.31	87.50%	78
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$99.52	87.50%	78
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$99.31	87.50%	78
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$99.01	87.50%	78
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$100	87.50%	78

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 3.7%covert 18.5%sunny 3.7%classified 18.7%Ancient 1.9%red 5.6%Legendary 9.9%pink 5.9%violet 8.1%restricted 10.2%#8847ff 3.1%Classified 1.2%Mythical 7.4%#d32ee6 1.2%uncommon 0.7%best hit $627 (6.31x)