FROSTY

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$0.80

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.70 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.11%

42.9K openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.99%±6.714,851 openings

7 days

86.02%±2.4436.4K openings

30 days

86.11%±2.2542.9K openings

since tracking started

86.11%±2.2542.9K openings

76.5%84.0%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,851	83.99%±6.71	−1.0σ	odds
7d	36.4K	86.02%±2.44	−1.4σ	odds
30d	42.9K	86.11%±2.25	−1.3σ	odds
All	42.9K	86.11%±2.25	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · sunny · Phase 4	1 in 33,333	$248	1.1%	1	1.3	0.77×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$121	1.2%	3	3.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$20.53	0.3%	1	4.3	0.23×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$15.18	0.4%	10	8.6	1.16×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$10.92	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$10.37	0.4%	0	12.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,316	$8.90	1.0%	0	32.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 935	$8.73	1.3%	0	46.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 559	$6.74	1.7%	0	77.1	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 926	$6.28	1.0%	0	46.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 581	$5.88	1.4%	0	74.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 518	$5.56	1.5%	0	83.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 408	$4.94	1.7%	0	105.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 521	$4.56	1.3%	0	82.7	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 242	$4.43	2.6%	0	177.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 613	$3.04	0.7%	0	70.2	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 184	$2.71	2.1%	0	233.8	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 167	$2.66	2.3%	0	257.9	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 149	$2.51	2.4%	0	289.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$2.48	2.3%	0	279.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$1.87	2.0%	0	315.2	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$1.82	2.5%	0	412.9	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 65	$1.44	3.2%	0	659.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 129	$1.39	1.5%	0	335.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$1.29	1.7%	0	388.8	0.00×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 132	$1.29	1.4%	0	327.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$1.24	1.7%	0	420.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 154	$1.07	1.0%	0	279.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$0.99	3.7%	0	1123.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 132	$0.95	1.0%	0	327.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 161	$0.89	0.8%	0	268.2	0.00×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.86	2.1%	0	735.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 161	$0.86	0.8%	0	267.4	0.00×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$0.84	2.1%	0	770.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 36	$0.69	2.7%	0	1189.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$0.69	2.8%	0	1202.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$0.67	2.8%	0	1239.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.66	2.9%	0	1323.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 27	$0.58	3.1%	0	1585.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.54	3.1%	0	1752.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$0.46	2.1%	0	1394.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$0.44	3.0%	0	2061.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.44	2.2%	0	1483.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$0.41	3.1%	0	2275.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.41	2.2%	0	1638.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.41	2.1%	0	1525.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.40	2.1%	0	1578.8	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.40	2.1%	0	1578.8	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue	14.5%	$0.28	5.8%	6,391	6264.4	1.02×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	15.0%	$0.26	5.6%	6,572	6440.0	1.02×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/frosty, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · sunny · Phase 4$0.80$247309.1x1d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertwoot$0.80$121150.7x8d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSherlock H0es$0.80$117146.6x5d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert.wiczosek12skins.army$0.80$117146.2x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue---b7---$0.80$0.280.35x1m

AWP | Phobosweapon · violet$0.80$2.873.59x2m

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue$0.80$0.280.35x2m

Five-SeveN | Hybridweapon · violet$0.80$0.430.54x2m

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blueskins.army$0.80$0.280.35x2m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink---b7---$0.80$5.797.24x2m

Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue---b7---$0.80$0.280.35x2m

SCAR-20 | Powercoreweapon · violet$0.80$1.591.99x2m

Tec-9 | Brotherweapon · violet$0.80$0.460.58x2m

Sawed-Off | Serenityweapon · violet76561199855857373$0.80$2.863.57x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.80	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$0.80	87.22%	50
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$0.80	86.73%	50
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$0.80	86.72%	50
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.80	87.70%	50
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$0.80	88.80%	50
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$0.80	87.70%	50
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$0.80	88.80%	50
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$0.80	88.33%	50
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$0.80	88.27%	50
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$0.80	87.61%	50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.80	86.96%	50
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.80	87.99%	50
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.80	88.12%	50
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$0.80	86.97%	50
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$0.80	87.18%	50
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.80	86.99%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 3.4%Legendary 0.3%uncommon 3.9%Mythical 4.5%Classified 0.2%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 22.5%violet 21.2%#8847ff 10.1%Rare 0.8%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 1.8%blue 29.5%best hit $247 (309.1x)