FROSTY JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$25.33
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $22.16 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.54%
3,219 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,223 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/frosty-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $25.33 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $25.47 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $25.36 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $24.95 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $25.07 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $25.07 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $25.13 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $25.01 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $25.06 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $25.01 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $25.06 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $25.05 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $25.97 | 87.48% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $25.94 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $25.97 | 87.48% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 5.0%covert 5.0%classified 12.5%pink 10.8%Legendary 2.5%Mythical 6.7%uncommon 3.3%Classified 1.3%#d32ee6 1.3%restricted 17.5%#8847ff 6.3%violet 12.9%Rare 1.7%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 1.7%blue 10.0%best hit —