GALAXY

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$165.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $144.38 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.39%

2,200 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.03%±11.71301 openings

7 days

90.16%±4.591,839 openings

30 days

89.39%±4.202,200 openings

since tracking started

89.39%±4.202,200 openings

81.5%94.0%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	301	94.03%±11.7	+1.1σ	odds
7d	1,839	90.16%±4.59	+1.1σ	odds
30d	2,200	89.39%±4.20	+0.9σ	odds
All	2,200	89.39%±4.20	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,200 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$2,804	0.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$2,592	0.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$2,262	0.6%	1	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,707	0.6%	2	1.1	1.82×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,592	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$1,435	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,254	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$816	0.6%	5	2.2	2.27×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 909	$759	0.6%	2	2.4	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 833	$697	0.6%	2	2.6	0.76×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$616	8.5%	11	43.6	0.25×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$610	2.9%	0	15.2	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 40	$492	8.5%	114	54.6	2.09×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 39	$398	7.1%	53	56.5	0.94×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$340	7.1%	84	66.2	1.27×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$320	4.7%	0	46.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$318	7.1%	71	70.6	1.01×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$222	10.7%	194	152.7	1.27×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 11	$175	10.7%	189	194.3	0.97×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$111	2.1%	0	60.7	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$95.90	2.2%	0	71.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$91.08	3.9%	121	135.5	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$75.96	3.5%	146	145.9	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$54.89	2.9%	146	165.9	0.88×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 26	$49.95	1.4%	0	86.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 26	$49.95	1.4%	0	86.2	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 13	$49.95	2.7%	184	172.3	1.07×
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 13	$49.62	2.7%	148	172.9	0.86×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11	$37.36	2.3%	191	193.6	0.99×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$35.40	2.2%	195	195.1	1.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/galaxy, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertAuguś$165$2,23713.56x7d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCyberRulz$165$1,72610.46x6d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$165$1,71010.36x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$165$8425.10x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertdie.$165$8255.00x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$165$8245.00x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertBrugalini14$165$8244.99x2d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldoliwiasuhtorii$165$7604.61x1d

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold???? ŻBIKU ????$165$7604.60x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1WeeFX$165$3982.41x27m

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covertWeeFX$165$1030.62x27m

AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientWeeFX$165$37.360.23x27m

★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertWeeFX$165$2221.35x27m

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covertWeeFX$165$1030.62x27m

M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertNaturalson$165$75.960.46x1h

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covertNaturalson$165$1030.62x1h

★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertNaturalson$165$3181.93x1h

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Naturalson$165$3982.41x1h

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covertNaturalson$165$1030.62x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$165	87.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$165	87.59%	30
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$165	87.61%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$165	87.40%	30
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$165	87.75%	30
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$165	87.45%	30
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$165	87.50%	30
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$165	87.65%	30
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$165	87.55%	30
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$165	87.77%	30
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$165	87.29%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$165	87.50%	30
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$165	87.78%	30
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$165	87.50%	30
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$165	87.64%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 54.9%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 8.9%classified 0.1%gold 8.0%epic 0.1%sunny 2.5%red 16.7%Ancient 8.8%best hit $2,237 (13.56x)