GIGA BUŁA

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.85

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.24 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.06%

17.3K openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.38%±6.482,237 openings

7 days

86.31%±2.5114.9K openings

30 days

86.06%±2.3217.3K openings

since tracking started

86.06%±2.3217.3K openings

77.0%84.3%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,237	84.38%±6.48	−1.0σ	odds
7d	14.9K	86.31%±2.51	−1.0σ	odds
30d	17.3K	86.06%±2.32	−1.2σ	odds
All	17.3K	86.06%±2.32	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 33,333	$706	0.5%	0	0.5	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 20,000	$287	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$170	0.7%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$147	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 3,333	$140	1.0%	8	5.2	1.54×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$86.20	0.6%	4	5.2	0.77×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,128	$54.84	0.6%	0	8.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,083	$53.77	0.6%	0	8.3	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,887	$51.50	0.6%	0	9.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$35.83	0.3%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$34.15	0.3%	0	6.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,099	$23.06	0.5%	0	15.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,053	$22.66	0.5%	0	16.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$22.47	0.5%	0	16.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 943	$19.74	0.5%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 901	$19.30	0.5%	0	19.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$18.02	9.9%	0	406.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$13.27	12.4%	0	688.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 19	$10.74	13.0%	985	893.1	1.10×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$9.86	2.6%	0	194.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$7.83	2.8%	0	264.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 513	$7.80	0.4%	0	33.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 22	$7.78	8.2%	0	777.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$6.91	2.4%	0	251.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$6.20	6.2%	688	735.3	0.94×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 42	$5.51	3.1%	0	409.1	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$5.42	2.3%	0	306.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$5.39	3.1%	0	427.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$5.23	6.2%	884	871.7	1.01×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$4.53	1.5%	0	250.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$4.50	1.3%	0	216.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$4.24	2.1%	0	365.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 71	$4.13	1.4%	0	243.7	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$3.23	0.7%	0	154.5	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 340	$3.18	0.2%	0	51.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 221	$3.14	0.3%	0	78.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 132	$2.65	0.5%	0	131.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 201	$1.99	0.2%	0	86.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 64	$1.30	0.5%	0	269.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 64	$1.30	0.5%	0	269.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$1.24	1.6%	998	964.2	1.04×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$1.18	0.5%	0	308.3	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.99	1.1%	0	807.7	0.00×
Sticker \| Bossy Burgersticker · blue	1 in 16	$0.96	1.4%	1,110	1068.0	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$0.90	0.3%	0	261.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$0.86	0.6%	0	551.6	0.00×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.84	0.7%	0	570.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$0.69	0.4%	0	379.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$0.68	0.4%	0	386.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.66	1.1%	1,204	1240.7	0.97×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 17	$0.60	0.9%	0	1051.0	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.54	0.4%	0	609.1	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.52	0.5%	0	641.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/giga-bula, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldSznur123$4.85$28558.82x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Wave Breakerweapon · violetÖrdög$4.85$0.630.13x3m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pinkÖrdög$4.85$10.742.21x3m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetÖrdög$4.85$0.830.17x3m

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkÖrdög$4.85$18.373.79x3m

G3SG1 | Dream Gladeweapon · violet$4.85$1.350.28x4m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkMajorr skins.army$4.85$5.451.12x4m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$4.85$6.201.28x10m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$4.85$1.420.29x10m

P90 | Wave Breakerweapon · violetKogut$4.85$0.630.13x10m

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pink$4.85$10.362.14x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$4.85	87.50%	53
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.85	87.50%	53
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$4.85	87.81%	53
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$4.85	87.69%	53
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$4.85	87.81%	53
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.85	87.66%	53
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$4.85	87.81%	53
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$4.85	87.55%	53
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.85	87.82%	53
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$4.85	87.35%	53
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$4.85	87.40%	53
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.85	87.57%	53
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.85	87.54%	53
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$4.85	87.19%	53
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.85	87.34%	53
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.85	87.27%	53
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$4.85	87.19%	53
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$4.85	87.92%	53
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$4.85	87.50%	53
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.85	87.59%	53

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%classified 6.4%pink 12.3%Legendary 6.4%restricted 7.0%rare 4.5%Classified 2.4%violet 26.9%#d32ee6 1.4%Mythical 5.2%uncommon 7.6%blue 19.8%best hit $285 (58.82x)