GIGA BUŁA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$75.03

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $65.65 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.90%

1,520 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59.16%±27.13194 openings

7 days

86.41%±10.071,404 openings

30 days

86.90%±9.681,520 openings

since tracking started

86.90%±9.681,520 openings

31.5%64.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	194	59.16%±27.1	−2.0σ	odds
7d	1,404	86.41%±10.1	−0.2σ	odds
30d	1,520	86.90%±9.68	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,520	86.90%±9.68	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,728 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 26	$706	41.3%	64	66.5	0.96×
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 26	$287	16.8%	71	66.5	1.07×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 26	$170	10.0%	58	66.5	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$147	8.6%	60	66.5	0.90×
★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 26	$140	8.2%	61	66.5	0.92×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 26	$86.20	5.0%	76	66.5	1.14×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 78	$54.84	1.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 78	$53.77	1.0%	0	22.2	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$51.50	1.0%	0	22.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$35.83	0.5%	0	16.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$34.15	0.5%	0	16.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$23.06	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$22.66	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$22.47	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$19.74	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$19.30	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$18.02	0.3%	0	16.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 52	$13.27	0.4%	0	33.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 26	$10.74	0.6%	59	66.5	0.89×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$9.86	0.2%	0	22.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$7.83	0.2%	0	22.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$7.80	0.1%	0	13.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 52	$7.78	0.2%	0	33.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$6.91	0.2%	0	33.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$6.20	0.4%	70	66.5	1.05×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 52	$5.51	0.2%	0	33.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$5.42	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 52	$5.39	0.2%	0	33.2	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$5.23	0.3%	70	66.5	1.05×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$4.53	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$4.50	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$4.24	0.1%	0	33.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 78	$4.13	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$3.23	0.1%	0	33.2	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$3.18	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$3.14	0.0%	0	16.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$2.65	0.1%	0	33.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 130	$1.99	0.0%	0	13.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 104	$1.30	0.0%	0	16.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$1.30	0.0%	0	16.6	0.00×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$1.24	0.1%	83	66.5	1.25×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 104	$1.18	0.0%	0	16.6	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$0.99	0.0%	0	33.2	0.00×
Sticker \| Bossy Burgersticker · blue	1 in 26	$0.96	0.1%	65	66.5	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 130	$0.90	0.0%	0	13.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.86	0.0%	0	33.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.84	0.0%	0	33.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$0.69	0.0%	0	13.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 130	$0.68	0.0%	0	13.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$0.66	0.0%	62	66.5	0.93×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 52	$0.60	0.0%	0	33.2	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$0.54	0.0%	0	22.2	0.00×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$0.52	0.0%	0	22.2	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/giga-bula-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$74.74$7129.53x8d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicgood$74.74$7129.53x8d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$75.71$7129.41x8d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicTidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME$75.03$7069.40x3h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$75.40$7049.34x3d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$75.29$7049.35x4d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicSneakPeak$75.29$7049.35x4d

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$75.29$7049.35x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pink$75.03$10.530.14x6m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkrozkurwiator30000$75.03$5.450.07x6m

P90 | Wave Breakerweapon · violet$75.03$1.410.02x12m

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryrozkurwiator30000$75.03$86.201.15x12m

★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$75.03$2873.83x19m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violet$75.03$1.620.02x19m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$75.03$1.730.02x19m

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkMcFucker$75.03$22.800.30x19m

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet$75.03$1.240.02x2h

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$75.03$0.660.01x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$75.03	87.50%	53
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$75.18	87.51%	53
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$75.56	87.50%	53
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$74.61	87.50%	53
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$75.29	87.50%	53
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$75.40	87.50%	53
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$75.19	87.50%	53
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$75.24	87.50%	53
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$75.19	87.50%	53
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$75.29	87.50%	53
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$75.40	87.50%	53
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$75.29	87.50%	53
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$75.86	87.51%	53
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$76.09	87.50%	53
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$75.86	87.51%	53
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$73.52	87.50%	53
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$74.74	87.50%	53

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 3.8%gold 7.7%covert 7.7%extraordinary 3.8%Ancient 1.3%red 2.6%classified 9.0%pink 12.8%Legendary 3.8%restricted 6.7%rare 1.9%Classified 1.9%violet 14.7%#d32ee6 1.3%Mythical 6.5%uncommon 2.9%blue 11.5%best hit $712 (9.53x)