GREENI

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$9.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.88 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.26%

8,278 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.24%±10.24934 openings

7 days

87.41%±3.707,353 openings

30 days

87.26%±3.478,278 openings

since tracking started

87.26%±3.478,278 openings

73.5%84.3%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	934	84.24%±10.2	−0.6σ	odds
7d	7,353	87.41%±3.70	+0.0σ	odds
30d	8,278	87.26%±3.47	−0.1σ	odds
All	8,278	87.26%±3.47	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,286 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$797	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 20,000	$506	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 20,000	$473	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$268	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12,500	$261	0.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 11,111	$249	0.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 11,111	$234	0.3%	1	0.7	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$230	0.3%	2	0.7	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$200	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 9,091	$195	0.3%	1	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$172	0.3%	0	1.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 7,692	$164	0.3%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$150	0.3%	2	1.2	1.72×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$146	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$137	0.3%	1	1.2	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$133	0.3%	3	1.3	2.26×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$125	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$122	0.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$119	0.3%	4	1.4	2.84×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,556	$114	0.3%	2	1.5	1.34×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$112	0.3%	2	1.5	1.34×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$111	0.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$108	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,263	$108	0.3%	1	1.6	0.64×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 4,545	$93.57	0.3%	2	1.8	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$90.51	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$88.63	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$87.84	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 4,348	$87.71	0.3%	2	1.9	1.05×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,000	$79.28	0.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$75.96	0.3%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 3,571	$72.45	0.3%	3	2.3	1.29×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$67.12	0.3%	6	2.5	2.41×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$66.23	0.3%	3	2.5	1.21×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$63.82	0.3%	2	2.6	0.78×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$60.22	0.3%	4	2.7	1.46×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 2,857	$57.58	0.3%	1	2.9	0.34×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$55.72	0.3%	3	3.0	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$54.89	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 2,632	$52.17	0.3%	6	3.1	1.91×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,273	$45.37	0.3%	2	3.6	0.55×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,273	$44.91	0.3%	1	3.6	0.27×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,545	$40.79	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 2,041	$40.42	0.3%	2	4.1	0.49×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,041	$40.36	0.3%	3	4.1	0.74×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$39.83	0.3%	4	4.1	0.97×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,923	$38.14	0.3%	3	4.3	0.70×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,923	$38.08	0.3%	2	4.3	0.46×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,754	$34.78	0.3%	7	4.7	1.48×
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,754	$34.50	0.2%	2	4.7	0.42×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 88	$33.26	4.8%	0	94.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 45	$30.88	8.7%	148	184.4	0.80×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 39	$26.89	8.7%	170	211.8	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 74	$24.24	4.2%	0	112.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 155	$22.11	1.8%	0	53.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 77	$20.92	3.5%	148	108.2	1.37×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$19.97	3.5%	116	113.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 66	$17.92	3.5%	139	126.3	1.10×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 58	$15.77	3.5%	169	143.5	1.18×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 54	$14.77	3.5%	166	153.2	1.08×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$14.44	1.7%	0	76.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 53	$14.35	3.5%	154	157.7	0.98×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$13.58	1.8%	0	85.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 50	$13.56	3.5%	228	166.8	1.37×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 47	$8.86	2.4%	179	176.5	1.01×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 239	$8.69	0.5%	0	34.6	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$7.64	0.9%	0	81.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 45	$7.54	2.1%	175	183.0	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 43	$6.64	2.0%	175	192.6	0.91×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$6.24	1.9%	204	197.5	1.03×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$6.12	1.0%	0	110.5	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$5.40	1.7%	205	209.1	0.98×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$5.32	1.7%	198	210.4	0.94×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 116	$5.17	0.6%	0	71.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 104	$4.76	0.6%	0	79.9	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.33	1.5%	186	228.4	0.81×
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 36	$4.30	1.5%	227	229.1	0.99×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 36	$4.24	1.5%	219	230.4	0.95×
Sticker \| Ragesticker · blue	1 in 35	$4.02	1.4%	206	235.3	0.88×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 73	$3.73	0.6%	0	112.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$3.66	1.4%	238	244.4	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 32	$3.06	1.2%	285	262.4	1.09×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$2.71	0.7%	0	175.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$2.52	1.1%	284	283.6	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 27	$2.05	1.0%	293	308.1	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$1.90	0.9%	333	317.5	1.05×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$1.48	0.8%	365	351.0	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 21	$1.07	0.7%	397	399.6	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$0.90	0.2%	0	181.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.89	0.6%	414	430.0	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.66	0.3%	0	279.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.41	0.4%	626	581.4	1.08×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/greeni, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$9.00$82491.58x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$9.00$0.410.05x3m

P250 | Asiimovweapon · classified$9.00$13.981.55x3m

XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$9.00$4.240.47x3m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicaltivson$9.00$3.060.34x3m

PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray$9.00$4.300.48x4m

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$9.00$8.860.98x4m

USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSoBoL BuK$9.00$0.890.10x4m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$9.00$3.060.34x6m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$9.00$5.320.59x6m

P250 | Asiimovweapon · classified$9.00$13.981.55x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$9.00	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$9.00	87.56%	92
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$9.00	87.23%	92
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$9.00	87.32%	92
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$9.00	87.08%	92
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$9.00	87.11%	92
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$9.00	87.09%	92
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$9.00	87.50%	92
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$9.00	87.62%	92
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$9.00	87.67%	92
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$9.00	87.25%	92
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.00	87.67%	92
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$9.00	87.41%	92
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$9.00	87.67%	92
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$9.00	87.82%	92
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$9.00	87.21%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%gold 0.1%red 1.2%Immortal 0.1%rare 2.6%extraordinary 0.1%Ancient 0.3%Covert 0.0%Restricted 4.9%uncommon 5.9%Legendary 13.8%pink 7.3%industrial 1.3%violet 21.2%Rare 1.7%classified 8.0%#d32ee6 1.9%Classified 0.4%blue 5.0%gray 2.8%restricted 6.8%Mythical 5.4%#4b69ff 3.4%mil spec 5.2%best hit $824 (91.58x)