GREENI JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$95.65

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $83.69 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.63%

413 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

80.27%±15.26272 openings

30 days

81.63%±12.38413 openings

since tracking started

81.63%±12.38413 openings

30.0%73.8%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	73.60%±43.0	—	odds
7d	272	80.27%±15.3	−0.9σ	odds
30d	413	81.63%±12.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	413	81.63%±12.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$798	11.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 83	$508	7.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 83	$469	6.8%	5	5.0	1.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$260	3.7%	3	5.0	0.60×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 83	$256	3.7%	3	5.0	0.60×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 83	$234	3.4%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$232	3.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$230	3.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 83	$197	2.8%	6	5.0	1.20×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$195	2.8%	5	5.0	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$172	2.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 83	$157	2.3%	7	5.0	1.39×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$154	2.2%	6	5.0	1.20×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$146	2.1%	3	5.0	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$136	2.0%	6	5.0	1.20×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$134	1.9%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 83	$125	1.8%	3	5.0	0.60×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 166	$122	0.9%	0	2.5	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$116	1.7%	3	5.0	0.60×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$115	1.7%	6	5.0	1.19×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$112	1.6%	3	5.0	0.60×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$112	1.6%	0	5.0	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$111	1.6%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 83	$109	1.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 83	$93.52	1.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$92.01	1.3%	8	5.0	1.59×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 83	$90.85	1.3%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 83	$86.89	1.3%	8	5.0	1.59×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 166	$81.46	0.6%	0	2.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$77.11	1.1%	6	5.0	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$76.15	1.1%	3	5.0	0.60×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 83	$73.09	1.1%	5	5.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$65.55	0.9%	6	5.0	1.19×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 83	$65.36	0.9%	5	5.0	1.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$63.19	0.9%	5	5.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$60.80	0.9%	6	5.0	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$57.35	0.8%	2	5.0	0.40×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 83	$57.04	0.8%	6	5.0	1.19×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 83	$56.47	0.8%	2	5.0	0.40×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$54.76	0.8%	4	5.0	0.80×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$44.80	0.6%	4	5.0	0.80×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$43.63	0.6%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 83	$43.27	0.6%	6	5.0	1.19×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$40.00	0.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$39.72	0.6%	9	5.0	1.79×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 166	$39.09	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$38.86	0.6%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$37.58	0.5%	5	5.0	1.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$36.92	0.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 166	$36.63	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 83	$35.54	0.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$30.68	0.4%	3	5.0	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 166	$24.62	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 83	$23.99	0.3%	6	5.0	1.19×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 166	$21.57	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 83	$20.64	0.3%	1	5.0	0.20×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$19.98	0.3%	3	5.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 83	$17.98	0.3%	4	5.0	0.80×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 83	$15.67	0.2%	7	5.0	1.39×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$14.55	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 83	$14.32	0.2%	7	5.0	1.39×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$14.08	0.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 83	$13.56	0.2%	8	5.0	1.59×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$13.22	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$8.95	0.1%	10	5.0	1.99×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 249	$8.80	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$7.41	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 83	$7.41	0.1%	7	5.0	1.39×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$6.78	0.1%	1	5.0	0.20×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$6.20	0.1%	6	5.0	1.19×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$6.00	0.0%	0	2.5	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$5.57	0.1%	8	5.0	1.59×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$5.39	0.1%	6	5.0	1.19×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 249	$5.06	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 166	$4.96	0.0%	0	2.5	0.00×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$4.35	0.1%	3	5.0	0.60×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$4.33	0.1%	3	5.0	0.60×
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 83	$4.31	0.1%	2	5.0	0.40×
Sticker \| Ragesticker · blue	1 in 83	$4.02	0.1%	5	5.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$3.70	0.1%	2	5.0	0.40×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 249	$3.60	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 83	$2.94	0.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 166	$2.71	0.0%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 83	$2.48	0.0%	5	5.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$2.11	0.0%	2	5.0	0.40×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$1.73	0.0%	7	5.0	1.39×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$1.56	0.0%	7	5.0	1.39×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 83	$1.09	0.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 166	$0.90	0.0%	0	2.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$0.83	0.0%	11	5.0	2.19×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 166	$0.68	0.0%	0	2.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$0.44	0.0%	6	5.0	1.19×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/greeni-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertCODE: vellty$98.08$8348.50x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$98.08$8348.50x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$97.52$8198.40x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$95.93$7828.15x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$97.52$5255.39x7d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$97.03$5245.40x8d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$97.49$5235.36x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1siurek burek skins.army$96.98$5225.39x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$95.97$5105.31x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$95.93$5015.22x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$95.65$77.110.81x4h

Glock-18 | Gold Toofweapon · red$95.65$37.860.40x4h

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedsztamaxyz$95.65$1.730.02x4h

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon_quot;S_quot; KING$95.65$2.110.02x4h

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$95.65$77.110.81x5h

AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert$95.65$56.470.59x5h

AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red$95.65$2562.67x5h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary_quot;S_quot; KING$95.65$37.580.39x5h

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$95.65$1341.40x7h

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$95.65$1461.53x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$95.65	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$96.08	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$96.57	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$95.97	87.50%	92
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$96.35	87.50%	92
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$96.97	87.50%	92
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$95.93	87.50%	92
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$96.98	87.50%	92
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$97.49	87.50%	92
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$97.43	87.50%	92
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$97.49	87.50%	92
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$97.43	87.50%	92
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$98.08	87.50%	92
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$97.65	87.50%	92
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$98.08	87.50%	92
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$97.52	87.50%	92
2 Nov, 22:28 UTC	$97.03	87.50%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.1%gold 4.8%red 4.8%Immortal 3.6%rare 4.8%extraordinary 2.4%Ancient 10.2%Covert 1.2%Restricted 2.4%uncommon 2.4%Legendary 7.0%pink 4.2%industrial 1.2%violet 6.6%Rare 1.2%classified 4.0%#d32ee6 1.2%Classified 0.4%blue 2.4%gray 1.2%restricted 2.4%Mythical 1.8%#4b69ff 1.2%mil spec 1.2%best hit $834 (8.50x)