HEIRLOOM
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $17.50 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.01%
19.3K openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.72% – 87.31%, 19,263 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/heirloom, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $20.00 | 87.87% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $20.00 | 87.92% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%restricted 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 5.1%red 0.9%blue 31.2%rare 0.5%consumer 2.7%Ancient 1.1%pink 32.1%classified 2.1%violet 17.0%Mil Spec Grade 2.8%Legendary 4.4%best hit $2,826 (141.3x)