HEIRLOOM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$314.48

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $275.17 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.56%

1,973 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.13%±11.631,061 openings

7 days

86.56%±8.421,973 openings

30 days

86.56%±8.421,973 openings

since tracking started

86.56%±8.421,973 openings

77.5%90.0%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,061	90.13%±11.6	+0.4σ	odds
7d	1,973	86.56%±8.42	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,973	86.56%±8.42	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,973	86.56%±8.42	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,979 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 32	$2,858	32.5%	62	61.8	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1,707	19.4%	68	61.8	1.10×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl	1 in 32	$1,384	15.7%	65	61.8	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 32	$738	8.4%	63	61.8	1.02×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 32	$595	6.8%	56	61.8	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$541	6.1%	54	61.8	0.87×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 128	$311	0.9%	0	15.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 128	$182	0.5%	0	15.5	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$135	1.5%	52	61.8	0.84×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 128	$113	0.3%	0	15.5	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$105	1.2%	78	61.8	1.26×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 128	$88.79	0.3%	0	15.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$83.77	1.0%	67	61.8	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 96	$67.93	0.3%	0	20.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 96	$57.96	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$54.54	0.6%	65	61.8	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 96	$52.86	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$47.11	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 32	$46.88	0.5%	70	61.8	1.13×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$45.17	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$43.39	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$40.23	0.2%	0	20.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$39.49	0.1%	0	20.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$37.10	0.1%	0	20.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$26.61	0.3%	0	61.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$23.75	0.1%	0	20.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$23.20	0.1%	0	20.6	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 32	$23.06	0.3%	56	61.8	0.91×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$23.01	0.1%	0	20.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$20.09	0.2%	0	61.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 32	$17.92	0.2%	66	61.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$15.51	0.2%	0	61.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$15.43	0.2%	0	61.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 32	$13.56	0.2%	56	61.8	0.91×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$12.65	0.1%	0	30.9	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$12.34	0.1%	0	30.9	0.00×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$12.24	0.1%	63	61.8	1.02×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 64	$10.40	0.1%	0	30.9	0.00×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 32	$10.27	0.1%	63	61.8	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$9.38	0.1%	56	61.8	0.91×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 64	$8.52	0.0%	0	30.9	0.00×
Sticker \| Lucas (Foil)sticker · pink	1 in 32	$8.03	0.1%	69	61.8	1.12×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 64	$7.70	0.0%	0	30.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$7.54	0.1%	61	61.8	0.99×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 64	$7.49	0.0%	0	30.9	0.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$7.46	0.0%	0	30.9	0.00×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 64	$6.93	0.0%	0	30.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/heirloom-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$314$2,8589.09x3h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$314$2,8589.09x8h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyDeadGamer$314$2,8589.09x8h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyXAK1$314$2,8589.09x8h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$314$2,8589.09x9h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyBERKAY$315$2,8409.02x30s

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyBONUS CODE: ASLAN$315$2,8409.02x1h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$315$2,8409.02x1h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyBONUS CODE: ASLAN$315$2,8409.02x1h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Rubytwitch.tv/agiie$315$2,8409.02x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Fully Tunedweapon · covert$315$58.790.19x6s

Souvenir G3SG1 | New RootsSouvenir · weapon · blueBERKAY$315$9.170.03x6s

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet$315$23.060.07x14s

★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertBERKAY$315$1050.33x14s

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$315$12.240.04x22s

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldBERKAY$315$7352.34x22s

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pink$315$22.730.07x30s

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyBERKAY$315$2,8409.02x30s

Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumerCloudy$315$46.880.15x14m

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pinkCloudy$315$19.650.06x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$314	87.50%	47
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$312	87.50%	47
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$338	88.50%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 6.3%restricted 6.3%gold 3.1%covert 14.6%red 5.2%blue 20.3%rare 1.0%consumer 3.1%Ancient 1.0%pink 25.5%classified 1.0%violet 9.4%Mil Spec Grade 1.6%Legendary 1.6%best hit $2,858 (9.09x)