HELLFIRE
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$0.70
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.61 from 64 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.74%
51.1K openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.86% – 86.62%, 51,127 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/hellfire, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.70 | 87.36% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.70 | 87.14% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.70 | 86.60% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.70 | 87.13% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.70 | 87.76% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.70 | 87.74% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.70 | 86.97% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.70 | 86.59% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.70 | 88.03% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.70 | 86.81% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.70 | 87.76% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.70 | 86.69% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.27% | 64 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.70 | 87.06% | 64 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 0.3%classified 0.0%pink 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%violet 32.9%Mil Spec 3.9%restricted 1.0%#4b69ff 11.0%Mythical 6.5%mil spec 3.4%uncommon 0.6%Restricted 0.7%Rare 1.0%milspec 5.0%blue 19.9%#8847ff 13.7%best hit —