HELLFIRE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$11.50

Advertised RTP

87.53%

EV $10.07 from 64 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.73%

25.7K openings, odds method

Variance

8.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.48%±11.632,557 openings

7 days

83.26%±4.0021K openings

30 days

83.73%±3.6325.7K openings

since tracking started

83.73%±3.6325.7K openings

71.0%83.5%96.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.79% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.10% – 87.36%, 25,743 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,557	83.48%±11.6	−0.7σ	odds
7d	21K	83.26%±4.00	−2.3σ	odds
30d	25.7K	83.73%±3.63	−2.2σ	odds
All	25.7K	83.73%±3.63	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$166	75.1%	1,107	1170.7	0.95×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$13.53	3.1%	0	585.2	0.00×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 44	$12.30	2.8%	0	585.5	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$7.80	0.9%	0	292.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$6.67	1.0%	0	390.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 66	$6.67	1.0%	0	390.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$6.43	1.0%	0	390.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 88	$5.94	0.7%	0	292.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$4.85	0.7%	0	390.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$4.50	0.7%	0	390.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$4.43	0.7%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$4.02	0.9%	0	585.2	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$4.01	0.5%	0	292.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$3.96	0.9%	0	585.5	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$3.81	0.6%	0	390.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$3.81	0.6%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$3.69	0.8%	0	585.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$3.68	0.6%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$3.66	0.8%	0	585.5	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$3.50	0.4%	0	292.6	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$3.40	0.4%	0	292.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$3.17	0.7%	0	585.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$2.52	1.1%	1,183	1170.7	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44	$1.70	0.4%	0	585.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Akoben (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$1.62	0.2%	0	292.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 88	$1.42	0.2%	0	292.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$1.33	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$1.30	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 66	$1.29	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$1.25	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 66	$1.24	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$1.15	0.2%	0	390.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 88	$1.09	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$1.06	0.1%	0	292.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$1.01	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 88	$0.98	0.1%	0	292.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 88	$0.83	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 88	$0.83	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$0.72	0.1%	0	390.2	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.70	0.1%	0	390.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.55	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$0.55	0.2%	1,189	1171.0	1.02×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.52	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$0.50	0.1%	0	292.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 88	$0.50	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.50	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 88	$0.47	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.47	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$0.47	0.1%	0	292.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.47	0.1%	0	292.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.46	0.1%	0	292.9	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$0.46	0.1%	0	390.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.44	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 88	$0.44	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.44	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 88	$0.43	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.43	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 88	$0.43	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$0.43	0.1%	0	390.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 88	$0.41	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 88	$0.40	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 88	$0.38	0.0%	0	292.9	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.38	0.1%	0	390.2	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.37	0.1%	0	390.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hellfire-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Syd Meadweapon · pink$11.50$12.911.12x2m

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstreamweapon · blue$11.50$0.470.04x2m

AWP | Dualityweapon · pink$11.50$3.770.33x2m

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet-the s4prano 友$11.50$0.550.05x2m

AK-47 | Rat Rodweapon · violet$11.50$4.590.40x3m

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8weapon · violet$11.50$0.610.05x3m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blue$11.50$0.540.05x3m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff-the s4prano 友$11.50$2.520.22x3m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blue$11.50$0.540.05x16m

Glock-18 | Moonriseweapon · violet$11.50$2.430.21x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.53%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$11.50	87.53%	64
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$11.64	87.51%	64
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$11.72	87.51%	64
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$11.45	87.51%	64
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$10.68	87.51%	64
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$10.69	87.51%	64
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$10.68	87.54%	64
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$10.95	87.48%	64
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$10.95	87.48%	64
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$10.95	87.48%	64
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$10.95	87.48%	64
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$10.94	87.47%	64
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$10.95	87.51%	64
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$10.94	87.47%	64
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$10.94	87.50%	64
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.97	87.51%	64
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$11.83	87.48%	64
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$11.97	87.51%	64
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$11.97	87.49%	64
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$11.83	87.48%	64
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$11.97	87.49%	64
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$12.21	87.52%	64
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$12.39	87.48%	64

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.1%classified 6.1%pink 12.9%#d32ee6 3.8%violet 24.6%Mil Spec 2.3%restricted 9.8%#4b69ff 10.2%Mythical 6.4%mil spec 2.3%uncommon 1.5%Restricted 1.5%Rare 1.1%milspec 2.7%blue 8.7%#8847ff 4.9%best hit —