HEXFIRE

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$36.00

Advertised RTP

87.65%

EV $31.55 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.82%

24.3K openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.94%±1.6219.8K openings

30 days

86.82%±1.4724.3K openings

since tracking started

86.82%±1.4724.3K openings

84.5%86.8%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	19.8K	86.94%±1.62	−1.0σ	odds
30d	24.3K	86.82%±1.47	−1.4σ	odds
All	24.3K	86.82%±1.47	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50,000	$5,485	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33,333	$3,016	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$2,234	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$804	0.3%	1	2.4	0.41×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 3,333	$398	0.4%	10	7.3	1.37×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$304	0.2%	0	4.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$242	0.2%	0	4.9	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 435	$239	1.7%	53	55.9	0.95×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 435	$236	1.7%	46	55.9	0.82×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$117	2.6%	0	167.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$99.22	3.0%	0	233.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$91.48	5.6%	515	469.4	1.10×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 58	$63.96	3.5%	0	415.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$46.80	19.7%	3,135	3232.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$43.69	5.1%	0	892.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 25	$42.12	5.3%	0	958.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 20	$37.52	5.9%	0	1206.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 35	$27.10	2.5%	0	698.1	0.00×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet	12.9%	$23.35	9.6%	3,342	3140.1	1.06×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 17	$22.92	4.2%	0	1396.1	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$22.80	4.3%	0	1461.8	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$19.54	4.6%	0	1809.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$18.62	2.9%	0	1196.7	0.00×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	14.2%	$18.38	8.3%	3,435	3456.3	0.99×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 13	$18.13	4.6%	0	1926.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$15.64	3.1%	0	1527.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hexfire, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareCODE: Ivero$36.00$80422.32x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Inheritanceweapon · red$36.00$43.541.21x1d

AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet$36.00$23.350.65x1d

MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil specHyeXX$36.00$46.801.30x1d

MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$36.00$46.801.30x1d

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified$36.00$91.482.54x1d

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant VinesSouvenir · weapon · violetGUSTLIK$36.00$20.140.56x1d

AK-47 | Inheritanceweapon · red$36.00$43.541.21x1d

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$36.00$18.380.51x1d

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violetGUSTLIK$36.00$18.380.51x1d

AK-47 | Inheritanceweapon · red$36.00$43.541.21x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.65%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$36.00	87.65%	26
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$36.00	87.70%	26
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$36.00	87.88%	26
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$36.00	87.90%	26
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$36.00	87.84%	26
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$36.00	87.98%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$36.00	87.84%	26
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$36.00	87.72%	26
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$36.00	87.90%	26
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$36.00	87.87%	26
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$36.00	87.93%	26
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$36.00	87.97%	26
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$36.00	88.00%	26
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$36.00	87.97%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.4%rare 6.0%red 10.7%classified 2.2%extraordinary 0.2%mil spec 13.3%#d32ce6 2.9%violet 40.8%uncommon 7.4%pink 11.2%best hit $804 (22.32x)