HEXFIRE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$893.21

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $781.56 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.16%

1,590 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

92.24%±8.781,358 openings

30 days

91.16%±8.101,590 openings

since tracking started

91.16%±8.101,590 openings

82.5%92.0%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1,358	92.24%±8.78	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,590	91.16%±8.10	+0.9σ	odds
All	1,590	91.16%±8.10	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,604 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 17	$5,655	42.6%	101	94.3	1.07×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 17	$3,027	22.8%	95	94.3	1.01×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 17	$2,239	16.8%	101	94.3	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 17	$804	6.0%	96	94.3	1.02×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 17	$413	3.1%	104	94.3	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 34	$302	1.1%	0	47.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 34	$254	1.0%	0	47.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$240	1.8%	91	94.3	0.96×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$229	1.7%	92	94.3	0.98×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$119	0.4%	0	47.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$105	0.4%	0	47.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$89.32	0.7%	94	94.3	1.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 68	$67.81	0.1%	0	23.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$46.80	0.4%	96	94.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$44.67	0.1%	0	23.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 68	$42.07	0.1%	0	23.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 68	$37.52	0.1%	0	23.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 51	$28.63	0.1%	0	31.5	0.00×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$23.06	0.2%	86	94.4	0.91×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 34	$22.60	0.1%	0	47.2	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 34	$22.55	0.1%	0	47.2	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 34	$20.79	0.1%	0	47.2	0.00×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$19.83	0.1%	104	94.4	1.10×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 34	$18.99	0.1%	0	47.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$17.90	0.0%	0	31.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$15.73	0.0%	0	31.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hexfire-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$892$5,6756.36x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2grochalek$892$5,6756.36x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$892$5,6756.36x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2grochalek$892$5,6756.36x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Silencieux zZzZ$892$5,6756.36x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2mateous$889$5,6756.39x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2dzs4z0n$889$5,6756.39x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$893$2780.31x1d

UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified$893$2400.27x1d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$893$4130.46x1d

UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGruchaGbałagan$893$2400.27x1d

AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Factory New)weapon · violet$893$23.060.03x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$893$5,6556.33x1d

P2000 | Fire Elementalweapon · red$893$1120.13x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2_quot;S_quot; KING$893$5,6556.33x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$893$2,2392.51x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$893$8040.90x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$893	87.50%	26
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$879	87.50%	26
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$889	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$893	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$889	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$891	87.50%	26
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$892	87.50%	26
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$891	87.50%	26
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$892	87.50%	26
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$889	87.50%	26
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$898	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$889	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$898	87.50%	26
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$893	87.50%	26
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$898	87.50%	26
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$899	87.50%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.9%rare 8.8%red 10.3%classified 11.8%extraordinary 5.9%mil spec 5.9%#d32ce6 2.0%violet 17.6%uncommon 2.9%pink 3.9%best hit $5,675 (6.36x)