HLTV V1
A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.62 from 66 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.32%
41.4K openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.33% – 87.31%, 41,440 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/hltv-v1, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.00 | 87.86% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.69% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.73% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.00 | 87.38% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.00 | 87.32% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.68% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.00 | 87.89% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.10% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $3.00 | 87.87% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.00 | 86.82% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.00 | 86.79% | 66 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%red 0.5%classified 4.9%pink 18.2%Mythical 4.8%Classified 2.2%restricted 7.4%violet 22.5%Legendary 6.0%blue 27.4%Rare 2.9%#4b69ff 3.2%best hit $179 (59.82x)