HLTV V1 JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$19.25
Advertised RTP
87.48%
EV $16.84 from 66 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.95%
10.3K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/hltv-v1-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $19.25 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $19.33 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $19.25 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $19.37 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $18.93 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $18.93 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $18.91 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $18.66 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $18.68 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $18.63 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $18.68 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $18.70 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $18.78 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $18.97 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $18.78 | 87.52% | 66 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $18.35 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $18.97 | 85.38% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $18.98 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $18.97 | 87.48% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $18.98 | 87.50% | 66 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $19.63 | 87.49% | 66 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $19.79 | 87.51% | 66 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $19.90 | 87.52% | 66 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.3%red 10.5%classified 8.8%pink 16.1%Mythical 6.3%Classified 2.1%restricted 10.0%violet 20.5%Legendary 4.6%blue 12.6%Rare 2.1%#4b69ff 1.1%best hit —