HOLLOW FRENZY

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

87.56%

EV $3.50 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.24%

84.2K openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

85.91%±1.7061.2K openings

30 days

86.24%±1.4584.2K openings

since tracking started

86.24%±1.4584.2K openings

83.5%86.0%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.79% – 87.68%, 84,234 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	61.2K	85.91%±1.70	−2.0σ	odds
30d	84.2K	86.24%±1.45	−2.0σ	odds
All	84.2K	86.24%±1.45	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33,333	$887	0.8%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$623	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$533	1.5%	5	8.4	0.59×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$388	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$284	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$94.06	0.3%	8	8.4	0.95×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$81.53	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$76.45	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$73.30	0.2%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$72.77	0.2%	0	8.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$71.94	0.2%	0	8.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$54.96	0.2%	0	8.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.30	0.3%	0	16.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$41.20	0.4%	0	25.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 3,333	$40.68	0.3%	0	25.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,000	$31.09	0.4%	0	42.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$30.43	0.5%	0	50.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,250	$26.87	0.6%	0	67.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$22.61	0.1%	0	8.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$14.12	3.6%	0	750.6	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$13.85	3.6%	0	775.9	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 95	$12.97	3.9%	0	885.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 156	$8.37	1.5%	0	539.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$5.52	2.3%	0	1239.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$5.49	2.3%	0	1239.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 61	$5.45	2.6%	0	1391.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 61	$5.17	2.4%	0	1391.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$4.94	9.1%	5,348	5439.8	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 14	$4.53	9.1%	5,699	5945.8	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.35	3.2%	0	2192.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.22	3.3%	0	2319.3	0.00×
Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	13.7%	$2.48	9.7%	11,441	11562.7	0.99×
Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	13.8%	$2.43	9.6%	11,546	11621.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	14.1%	$2.33	9.4%	11,985	11866.4	1.01×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	14.5%	$2.14	8.9%	12,564	12229.0	1.03×
G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	15.0%	$1.99	8.5%	13,013	12642.3	1.03×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/hollow-frenzy, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldZABAYT49KSUB$4.00$534133.4x4d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$4.00$534133.4x5d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeralddcanns761$4.00$533133.3x2d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$4.00$533133.2x7d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldGottík$4.00$533133.2x7d

AWP | Oni Taijiweapon · redBubus_56$4.00$38295.56x8d

AWP | Oni Taijiweapon · red$4.00$38195.35x6d

AWP | Oni Taijiweapon · reddagsior$4.00$38195.31x7d

AWP | Oni Taijiweapon · redfarfromheaven$4.00$38195.21x3d

AWP | Oni Taijiweapon · red$4.00$38195.21x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$4.00$2.430.61x1d

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$4.00$2.480.62x1d

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blueBrodnyZyd$4.00$2.480.62x1d

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$4.00$2.140.54x1d

CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray$4.00$4.531.13x1d

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blueFifol._ CS2.ME$4.00$2.480.62x1d

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$4.00$2.430.61x1d

UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet$4.00$4.941.24x1d

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blueBrodnyZyd$4.00$2.330.58x1d

AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMeszi$4.00$2.140.54x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.56%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$4.00	87.56%	36
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$4.00	87.92%	36
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$4.00	87.33%	36
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$4.00	87.48%	36
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$4.00	87.79%	36
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$4.00	87.77%	36
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$4.00	87.51%	36
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$4.00	87.55%	36
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.00	87.69%	36
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$4.00	87.64%	36
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$4.00	87.89%	36
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.00	87.87%	36
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$4.00	87.89%	36
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$4.00	87.88%	36
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$4.00	87.84%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%red 0.2%rare 0.0%uncommon 0.1%pink 10.9%classified 0.9%Legendary 1.7%#d32ce6 1.7%violet 20.9%gray 7.0%blue 41.6%blueLight 15.0%best hit $534 (133.4x)