HOT ICE
A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.88 from 60 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.21%
76K openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.50% – 84.92%, 76,038 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/hot-ice, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 88.14% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 87.95% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 87.95% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.00 | 87.46% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.81% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 88.49% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1.00 | 87.75% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.00 | 87.46% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.64% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.45% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.65% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 87.71% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 88.12% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 88.09% | 60 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.86% | 60 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 1.0%Legendary 0.6%pink 1.1%#d32ee6 0.6%restricted 6.2%violet 38.3%#8847ff 17.1%blue 12.9%Restricted 3.2%Mythical 3.6%grey 15.3%best hit $231 (231.2x)