HOT ICE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$34.26
Advertised RTP
87.51%
EV $29.98 from 60 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.20%
5,469 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.04% – 98.37%, 5,469 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,748 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/hot-ice-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $34.26 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $34.18 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $34.15 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $33.92 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $34.15 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $34.34 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $34.24 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $34.35 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $33.88 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $33.44 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $34.35 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $34.33 | 87.49% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $34.36 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $34.02 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $34.65 | 87.51% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $34.57 | 87.51% | 60 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.7%extraordinary 4.2%rare 4.2%classified 14.2%Legendary 5.8%pink 9.3%#d32ee6 4.0%restricted 6.9%violet 17.7%#8847ff 7.1%blue 4.2%Restricted 0.8%Mythical 0.8%grey 4.2%best hit —