HOWL
A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$300.00
Advertised RTP
87.03%
EV $261.09 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.56%
1,420 openings, odds method
Variance
10.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 39
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,420 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 177 | $8,950 | 19.4% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 117 | $7,130 | 23.3% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 88 | $2,804 | 12.1% | 23 | 16.0 | 1.43× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold | 1 in 25 | $912 | 14.1% | 50 | 57.4 | 0.87× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 17 | $610 | 13.7% | 82 | 83.5 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 87.5% | $51.70 | 17.3% | 1,242 | 1242.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/howl, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.03%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $300 | 87.03% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $300 | 87.19% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $300 | 86.63% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $300 | 87.02% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $300 | 86.84% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $300 | 87.30% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $300 | 86.84% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $300 | 87.30% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $300 | 87.09% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $300 | 86.70% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $300 | 87.05% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $300 | 86.76% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $300 | 86.75% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $300 | 87.08% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $300 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $300 | 87.02% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $300 | 86.63% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 89.2%contraband 0.9%gold 4.0%epic 5.9%best hit $9,103 (30.34x)