HOWL JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3,773.85
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $3,415.34 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.20%
1,241 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,807 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 16.7% | $8,950 | 43.7% | 278 | 301.2 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 16.7% | $7,130 | 34.8% | 305 | 301.2 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 16.7% | $2,828 | 13.8% | 326 | 301.2 | 1.08× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold | 16.7% | $919 | 4.5% | 302 | 301.2 | 1.00× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic | 16.7% | $610 | 3.0% | 311 | 301.2 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 16.7% | $55.49 | 0.3% | 285 | 301.2 | 0.95× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/howl-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $3,774 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3,767 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3,774 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $3,769 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3,792 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3,776 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3,804 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $3,789 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3,808 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3,792 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $3,818 | 90.50% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3,816 | 90.53% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3,790 | 90.50% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%contraband 16.7%gold 16.7%epic 16.7%best hit $9,103 (2.40x)