IMPERIAL
A case on Casehug (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.38 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.31%
15.8K openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.54% – 83.09%, 15,782 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/imperial, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $5.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.00 | 87.21% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.59% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.00 | 87.61% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $5.00 | 87.26% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.17% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $5.00 | 87.14% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.00 | 87.37% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.00 | 87.52% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $5.00 | 87.85% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.00 | 87.52% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 87.45% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.00 | 87.78% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.00 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.00 | 87.32% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%exotic 14.3%red 3.7%pink 11.5%Mythical 6.9%violet 19.0%remarkable 14.5%blue 10.8%Rare 19.3%best hit $444 (88.74x)