ISAMU V1

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.44 from 53 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.32%

106K openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.96%±4.1212.4K openings

7 days

85.94%±1.5190.4K openings

30 days

86.32%±1.40106K openings

since tracking started

86.32%±1.40106K openings

80.0%84.8%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12.4K	84.96%±4.12	−1.1σ	odds
7d	90.4K	85.94%±1.51	−1.9σ	odds
30d	106K	86.32%±1.40	−1.7σ	odds
All	106K	86.32%±1.40	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$217	0.5%	2	1.1	1.88×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$149	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$57.05	1.3%	14	10.6	1.32×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$30.36	1.4%	22	21.3	1.03×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$5.84	1.1%	0	90.4	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 877	$3.81	1.0%	0	121.3	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 877	$3.81	1.0%	0	121.3	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 820	$3.68	1.0%	0	129.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 429	$3.52	1.9%	0	247.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 529	$2.45	1.1%	0	201.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 178	$2.33	3.0%	547	596.7	0.92×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 426	$1.68	0.9%	0	250.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 344	$1.38	0.9%	0	309.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 157	$1.33	1.9%	0	677.6	0.00×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 102	$1.33	3.0%	950	1044.5	0.91×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$1.30	3.0%	1,014	1069.0	0.95×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$1.25	1.4%	0	518.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 270	$1.22	1.0%	0	394.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 265	$1.21	1.0%	0	401.0	0.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$1.09	1.6%	0	681.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$1.03	1.2%	0	531.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 377	$1.01	0.6%	0	281.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 427	$0.96	0.5%	0	248.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 68	$0.89	3.0%	1,239	1562.5	0.79×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 337	$0.89	0.6%	0	315.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 296	$0.89	0.7%	0	359.5	0.00×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 312	$0.86	0.6%	0	341.4	0.00×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 271	$0.81	0.7%	0	392.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 271	$0.81	0.7%	0	392.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 238	$0.80	0.8%	0	447.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 238	$0.80	0.8%	0	447.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 198	$0.73	0.8%	0	537.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$0.72	2.1%	0	1351.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 85	$0.67	1.8%	0	1257.3	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 157	$0.64	0.9%	0	677.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 174	$0.61	0.8%	0	612.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 168	$0.60	0.8%	0	632.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 152	$0.57	0.9%	0	702.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 121	$0.57	1.1%	0	877.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 41	$0.54	3.0%	2,059	2573.0	0.80×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 93	$0.50	1.2%	0	1140.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$0.50	3.0%	4,136	2779.4	1.49×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$0.46	2.8%	0	2814.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$0.44	2.8%	0	3008.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.35	6.1%	8,440	8074.4	1.05×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.29	3.7%	0	5990.6	0.00×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.28	5.3%	8,551	8827.5	0.97×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.24	3.7%	0	7242.6	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Caged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.24	3.7%	0	7242.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.24	4.8%	9,426	9390.2	1.00×
P250 \| Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.23	3.7%	0	7536.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 11	$0.20	4.3%	10,406	10099.6	1.03×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	10.1%	$0.17	3.9%	10,659	10788.9	0.99×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/isamu-v1, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBakusiowa | CODE: BAKU$0.50$219438.2x5d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covertTastyXany$0.50$219438.0x7d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.50$56.79113.6x2d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.50$56.47112.9x2d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertShirocoo$0.50$56.18112.4x4d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.50$56.18112.4x5d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertziom$0.50$55.36110.7x3d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBocian$0.50$54.30108.6x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Bullfrogweapon · blue$0.50$0.260.52x11s

MAG-7 | MAGnitudeweapon · bluewieslawCASE.GIFT$0.50$0.270.54x11s

P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec$0.50$0.240.48x1m

Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$0.50$0.280.56x1m

Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLightMosQuit$0.50$0.200.40x1m

SCAR-20 | Cagedweapon · blue$0.50$0.270.54x1m

R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$0.50$0.350.70x1m

SCAR-20 | Cagedweapon · blue$0.50$0.270.54x1m

Galil AR | Connexionweapon · violet_Mefju_$0.50$0.470.94x1m

P250 | Bullfrogweapon · bluenz?!$0.50$0.260.52x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.50	87.50%	53
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$0.50	86.85%	53
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$0.50	86.92%	53
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$0.50	86.87%	53
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$0.50	88.15%	53
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$0.50	88.35%	53
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$0.50	87.92%	53
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$0.50	87.85%	53
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$0.50	87.61%	53
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$0.50	86.36%	53
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.50	85.81%	53
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.50	86.84%	53
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$0.50	88.07%	53
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.50	87.32%	53
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$0.50	87.78%	53
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$0.50	88.66%	53
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.50	88.17%	53

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 3.0%pink 0.3%Mythical 4.1%violet 4.9%#8847ff 4.7%mil spec 2.7%blue 42.4%Rare 6.8%#4b69ff 2.4%milspec 8.8%blueLight 19.6%best hit $219 (438.2x)